They did it.
The Calgary Flames managed to secure a NHL playoff spot by American Thanksgiving. What does that get you? Absolutely nothing of course, as they still have more than 70% of their schedule still left to play. It does however, create a great discussion given the history of this magical date.
The history of the turkey line comes from a notion by Red Wing’s GM Kenny Holland;
The Hockey News December 2013
Detroit Red Wings GM Ken Holland has long contended that when it comes to making the playoffs, things are pretty much decided by the U.S. Thanksgiving weekend, which gives a new meaning to Black Friday if you’re on the outside looking in.
And if history is any indication, Holland is about three-quarters correct. Over the past 10 seasons there have been 160 playoff spots up for grabs. Of the 160 teams that have held down a playoff spot after the U.S. Thanksgiving weekend, 41 of them have finished the season out of the playoff picture. (We obviously didn’t include last season because the battle between the billionaires and the millionaires prevented us from having any NHL hockey until January.)
As a web site owner I’ve been projecting this article on this date for the better part of a month. My hope was the Flames would squeak into the 8th spot at Thanksgiving creating the debate about teams and the likelihood of holding down a spot in each Conference. Media in other markets would have been sure to point at the Flames as the team most likely to fall out (the 25%), and fans in Calgary thinking things too good to be true, would likely have thought the same.
But a funny thing happened on the way to Thanksgiving; the Flames made the mark easily.
By holding down the third spot in their division and having two wild card teams between themselves and the best team on the outside looking in the Flames have a six point bulge on a playoff spot, sending them into a much more intricate analysis for playoff chances.
Warning: If you don’t like jinxes, and would rather just watch this play out don’t read on!
The Flames are very, very likely to make the playoffs.
The Hockey News has it right, over ten hockey seasons (two excluded for lockouts) 23% of teams holding down playoff spots at American Thanksgiving have found a way to mess things up the rest of the way. My data range is a year newer than the quote above, so the number changes from 41 teams out, to 37.
But this is where things get more interesting.
My first cut of the data looked for discrepancies in when Thanksgiving fell, over the data range we’ve seen the date as early as November 22nd, and as late as November 28th. That six day range as I expected means little to the numbers, in fact the fewest teams missed in the earliest date, and the most teams missed in the latest date. So this year’s relatively late Thanksgiving is irrelevant.
The second issue is the change to the divisional system coming out of the last lockout. With only two divisions per conference and not three, there are less teams dropping out of playoff spots (very small sample size) than in the old system, since there are less division leaders holding down playoff spots despite either being close to the water mark or actually out.
The big issue for the Flames however is the lead over a playoff spot.
In the ten year data range the average lead of a team that went on to miss the playoffs is 2.5 points
The accompanying graph shows the frequency of missing the playoffs depending on the lead at the Turkey Line. No team has missed with a 6 point lead. Only two teams have missed with 6 or more points advantage.
Or if you want it in percentages, only 5.5% of the teams that have missed the playoffs have had a six or more point advantage over the 9th place team.
That’s pretty telling if you’re a Flames fan, and suggests those that feel the Flames are ripe for falling out likely haven’t dug into the numbers.
I’m not all that superstitious, so I’ll just come out and say it. The Calgary Flames are going to make the playoffs this year. Or in betting terms there is no way I’d put money down against it, the odds are just too strong.
The base numbers suggest they are 75% likely to make the mark, but my further study pushes the likelihood to a staggering 94.5%.
So crank up the Red Mile Calgary, there’s playoff hockey coming this Spring. The rebuild is moving much quicker than most if not all anticipated. And if you didn’t need more intrigue in a tie back to 2004? If the playoffs started today the Flames would be opening in Vancouver.
I wonder if Martin Gelinas can coach clutch goals?
Choke History
As a final note, a quick show and tell on the franchises that have stumbled and become the example, and not the norm.
Twenty-two different teams appear on the list, with the Maple Leafs at the top, representing 4 of 37 instances, a whopping 11%. The Leafs have blown leads of 5, 3, 5, and 3 which is even more painful when you consider how far outside the average of 2.5 they’ve been.
The Thrashers (Jets), Hurricanes and Kings have all done the trick three times, while the Sabres, Stars, Oilers, Wild, Habs, and Canucks have all done it once. Twelve teams including the Flames have done it once.
The two teams at the end of that graph that chunked up 7 and 8 point leads? Vancouver and Los Angeles in 2006.
Another interesting note? The Flames were the team to push another club out on three occasions (2004, 2007 and 2008), moving from back of the pack into a playoff spot by the final gun of the season.
