I’m a type “A” hockey fan, but I won’t profess to know the nuances of every team in the NHL, especially teams in Eastern markets, I just don’t see enough of every team’s games to become an expert on what makes every team tick.
I know, for example that the Islanders are having a heck of a season, as well as the guys in Tampa. I get that the Capitals have been on a run, and that the Bruins have righted the ship despite a pretty weak month of December. I don’t, however, know exactly why these things are happening.
My gut would say Halak has played a big role in the Islanders turn around, fortified by the addition of Leddy and Boychuck on the back end. I would have been wrong (more on that later), which brings me to my point.
You simply have to ignore national media when it comes to assessing teams in any market outside of Toronto, Montreal or perhaps Vancouver.
When a team like the Flames rise into a playoff spot when they were many journalists’ pick to battle the Sabres for last overall and Connor McDavid, the urge to slough off the unexpected do to something as simple as goaltending is too easy to pass up.
For example Sportsnet’s latest power rankings had the Flames moving up, but with this tag line; “Calgary hasn’t qualified for the post-season in five seasons, but they’re in playoff position now — thanks to the combined efforts of three goalies on their roster. Lyrical expression: “You are the drought/ And I’m the holy water you have been without””
Now colour me sensitive, but that seems to read as three goaltenders leading the Flames from what should have been last place into a playoff spot at the all star break. Is that what’s really happening in Calgary?
Its certainly the reality of the last week where Joni Ortio was a difference maker in four straight road wins, but the season as a whole?
This question had me digging into team save percentage, which lead to an overall look at the NHL standings versus save percentage.
How closely aligned is save percentage and NHL standings? Which teams are riding a goaltender, and which teams are sunk by their goaltender? Or more rarely what teams are winning despite their goaltending?
A team with a great goaltender, but little of anything else will be hard pressed to move up the NHL standings, but a strong puck stopper can mask a lot
Group A: Standings & Save Percentage Aligned
One would assume its rare to be a top club in the NHL with awful goaltending, and similarly its pretty unlikely to have the best goaltending in the circuit but find yourself way down the standings.
Of the 30 NHL clubs, 13 find themselves within four spots when goaltending is compared to the standings, suggesting roughly half of the clubs in the NHL have goaltending that fits with their overall standing.
This group include;
-
Variance / Teams
(A negative number represents goaltending as exceeding their rank in the standings, a positive number suggests its dragging them down)
(4) – Boston/Pittsburgh/Winnipeg
(I would have been as guilty as Sportsnet in assuming the Jets rise is all goaltending, this suggests its a big part of it, but not the whole story.)
(2) – Columbus
(A Healthy Bobrovsky is a boost, but when he’s hurt they flounder)
(1) – Toronto
(sorry Leaf fans Bernier just couldn’t hold for an entire season under that barrage)
0 – Arizona/Philly
(their goaltending matches their position in the standings exactly)
1 – Nashville/Edmonton/Los Angeles/Washington
(Oiler ranked 29th with the 30th ranked goaltending. Big surprise is the Kings being ranked 18th in save percentage as I thought they had a scoring problem. Quick hasn’t been himself.)
4 – St. Louis/San Jose
(Two Western conference playoff teams that are hurt by goaltending, but not to the extent where they fall out of the playoffs. In the Blues’ case injuries to Elliot and the addition of Brodeur have hurt their numbers.)
Group B: Riding the Hot Goaltender
The second group includes teams that have a noticeable disparity towards goaltending, that is; a league ranked team save percentage that is noticeably better than their placement in the NHL standings.
The teams in this grouping seem to be one of; club’s with a known elite goaltender, or lottery pick teams that can’t blame their woes on their stopper.
This group include;
-
Variance / Teams
(5) – Buffalo/Chicago/Vancouver
(Yep, the Sabres would be ranked 35th in NHL standings without Enroth’s fine play!)
(6) – Montreal
(The first of contending teams getting a lot of help from an elite goaltender. The Habs would be a playoff team without Price but with him they become a Cup threat).
(7) – Rangers
(Just like Montreal, the Rangers are good, but get a significant boost from Lundqvist. The team has the league’s 4th best goaltending but sit 11th in NHL standing)
(8) – Florida
(The pattern continues with another elite goaltending willing his team towards success. The Panthers are the league’s 18th ranked club but enjoy top ten goaltending)
(10) – New Jersey/Carolina
(Two bad teams that would be even worse if they didn’t have solid goaltending from Cory Schneider and Cam Ward. They’d be Edmonton/Buffalo bad!)
(12) – Ottawa
(Another year where Anderson props his team up in the standings making them appear closer to competing than they actually are)
(13) – Colorado
(A team that made the playoffs last season on the back of their goaltender Varlamov, this season they’d be lottery pick bad if he wasn’t carrying the mail. Ranked 18th in overall standings, with the 5th best goaltending. What a waste!)
Group C: Getting By With A Sieve
And finally, the third group includes a vast range of teams that are pulled down by their goaltending like a boat anchor, or at very least have pushed higher in the standings than their goaltending would suggest. These teams with an upgrade could vault up the standings.
This group include;
-
Variance / Teams
5 – Calgary
(The least effected of the effected group, Calgary has had periods of amazing goaltending, and then periods where the goaltending has failed them. The Flames are ranked 16th in league standings with the 21st ranked save percentage at .906.)
6 – Minnesota
(The team that instantly comes to mind when you think of a lost season due to goaltending. The Wild haven’t been able to lock down their goaltending for years, bouncing between the old and injured and the young and untested. Would they be a playoff team with better stoppers?)
8 – Dallas
(A lack of a strong back up and inconsistency from Lehtonen has the Stars in the hunt, but on the outside looking in)
9 – Detroit
(Once again a backup goaltender issue, and an injury to Howard)
14 – Anaheim
(The leagues’ best team is getting down despite having the NHL’s 15th ranked goaltending. Is that a recipe for playoff success though?)
18 – Tampa Bay
(Amazing to see a 3rd place team have bottom third goaltending, but that’s exactly where the Bolts find themselves. Ben Bishop has had a decidedly average season for a guy that was a horse last year. He had better right the ship prior to playoff time.)
22 – Islanders
(Halak went to the all star game on the strength of his win/loss record not the details of his save percentage. He has a .910 save percentage while the Isles have the 26th ranked team save percentage of .897. Amazing they find themselves in 4th spot overall.)
A lot of the advanced statistics quoted today are simple when you get into the math; all shots in a game as a percentage between teams as the basis for many with different nuances. So clearly ranking goalie save percentage and comparing them to league standings will come up short of the Nobel Prize, but I did find it interesting to see where the Flames fit on this scale given the comments in the power rankings.
A better attack angle on the Flames is shooting percentage as they sit in 2nd place at 10.5%, but the same national media that points to goaltending would never assume the Flames have the fire power to fill the net above their weight.
The Flames have been lucky this season, there is little doubt about it, their come from behind wins, their goal totals with the netminder pulled have been surreal.
But don’t count their goaltending on the list of saviours that have propelled them into a playoff spot at the all star break. However, something tells me they had better be a big piece of the puzzle going forward or the feel good story will come crashing down to Earth.
Sure is fun to be entertaining such thoughts in late January though!
