First off I’ll say it; I hate predicting playoff series involving the Calgary Flames. Hate it. Hate.
Ask me what will happen in Montreal, Manhattan or Washington and I’ll give you a winner, the number of games and why in a second, but a matchup with Calgary involved and it’s really tough to see the forest for those damn trees.
A further caveat on the above … I wouldn’t necessarily be right on any of the other series either!
So I’ll start with just saying how great it is to have to painfully predict a Flames playoff series. It goes without saying that it’s not something I envisioned doing in April of 2015, the 2014-15 season was about as unexpected a season as I can remember, save for maybe the odd collapse and missed playoffs the Flames had in 1992.
What does it mean?
Two huge things for me.
#2 the end of a non playoff streak. That lists bugs me more than any advanced stat ranking when it comes to NHL franchises. I hate to see the non playoff year total building and building and building. The Flames were at 5 now they’re at 0 and I couldn’t be happier. Let the Edmonton Oilers go for double digits next year, but the Flames won’t have that fear until my kids are out of University. Perfect.
#1 development. Sure the team missed out on Connor McDavid, but how much better as a percentage are Gaudreau, Monahan, Brodie, and other players like Ferland, Jooris, Granlund, Ortio, from going coast to coast in a season that matters, and then getting to experience the Stanley Cup playoffs. One playoff season has to be worth what 3 regular seasons in a rebuild? Amazing.
But enough wool gathering we have a playoff series to predict.
Calgary Flames vs Vancouver Canucks
I’ll go through the quick steps by position, but I honestly don’t think this is a series that has anything to do with what these teams look like on paper.
Goaltending:
A series that will likely see all four goaltenders start a game, as neither team has a clear cut number one and both for the same reason. The starter hasn’t been consistent enough to keep his job, and the backup is good enough to almost be a starter.
In Vancouver Lack has carried the mail but there is some pressure to get Miller back in as he was the big off season signing in Vancouver by Benning. Both have been inconsistent. From the Calgary side I hope we see Miller soon as he’s been on the decline since his trade to St. Louis and has a larger “Cloutier” impact on the series.
The Flames have Hiller who was cast aside and ignored in last year’s playoffs by the Ducks, but played pretty well down the stretch. His need to drop to his knees on every shot scares the hell out of me. Ramo coming off an injury with no games since bowing out in Edmonton has been either amazing or yank worthy all season.
EVEN
Defensemen:
The Canucks one through seven get the nod, but only because of the Mark Giordano injury. I think the Wideman/Russell/Brodie top three are at least equal if not better due to offense than any three Canuck defenders, but the depth falls off hard for the Flames with injuries to their captain, and to their logical 7th dman that was playing as a 6 for months. The acquisition of Schlemko on waivers has helped but there are still pretty big holes.
The Canucks with the surge from Tanev are five deep in competent defenseman, and have better depth in Weber, Clendening and Stanton so you have to give the edge to the Canucks.
Forwards:
Both teams have solid top lines. Both teams have surprising depth in scoring from somewhat unexpected sources.
The Flames have youth and speed. The Canucks have experience and playoff moxy. A very interesting battle will play out between the two club’s top lines as the veteran Sedin lead line will need to outscore Calgary’s youth driven top line if they want to win the series.
Too close to pick, call them even.
Coaching:
Two solid coaches that should get consideration for coach of the year so its tempting to pick this category as even as well, but you have to give the edge to Hartley. The Canucks were on the decline and Desjardins put the assets back to use as they should be employed instead of the “lets all be someone we’re not” approach liked by Tortarella last season. May seem obvious, but the man made the switch back and organization bolstered by free agent signings took a big step forward back into the playoffs.
Hartley talked playoffs from training camp which had most of us giggling. Nobody is giggling any more. How did he do it? Luck and unsustained shooting percentage according to most, but I don’t buy that in a 110 game sample size. I believe in statistics, but I don’t believe a team can defy those types of odds for a season and a third. So what is it? Coaching. Bob Hartley looked at a team that didn’t have the size to dominate a puck possession game and with that designed a bend but not break defensive bubble with a lethal counter attack. It worked. It could continue to work.
Earlier in the season he used a tape to tape pass pass pass system in his own zone to move the puck up the ice quickly, at one point sending Brodie from the front of the net as an outlet. Teams got wise to it so then he cherry picked a winger and had the winger deflect a long bullet pass into opposition’s zone to hamper their forecheck.
These are adjustments. Adjustments win playoff series.
Edge goes to Hartley.
Intangibles:
This is where this series gets interesting.
For years the Canucks have looked like the 2009 Calgary Flames. A team with some solid veterans on the decline refusing to rebuild, and falling further down the standings. This year is a departure from that model because they played well, are deserving of a playoff spot and have proven they’re not past their expiry date. However they do carry some playoff junk between their ears as their last two playoff performances were wipe outs with many key veterans essentially no shows. If that happens again against a young hungry team like Calgary, a team that your fan base couldn’t stand to lose to? Yikes.
The Flames are crazy young. They have a 20 and 21 year old on their first line, look to have an 18 year old on their second line. A rookie on their third line, and two on their fourth. Young young. If they’re too stupid to feel the pressure it could be a quick series for Calgary. If they wilt under the bring lights it could go the other way quickly. It will be very interesting.
A positive for Calgary is recent play and the fact that both Monahan and Gaudreau are already establishing themselves as big game players. Showing up against LA to clinch a playoff spot. Stepping up and scoring since Giordano went down is a sign of taking on responsibility. They just may continue to be clutch going into the second season.
The Pick:
Did I mention I hate making these?
The rosters are even, with a slight edge to the healthier Canucks. Coaching goes to the Flames making it all about intangibles and the game between the player’s ears.
I believe in the Flames youth. They are battle tested. The Flames will win this series in six games if Monahan isn’t that badly dinged up. Calgary wins games two, three, five and six and the team moves on to have home ice against the Jets in the second round.
Buckle your seat belts Calgary. This isn’t a 2004 ride, but it’s not a quick exit either!
