Well this is rarified air isn’t it?
Calgarypuck.com came to be during the spring/summer of 2000, 15 long and winding years ago.
In that time the Flames have missed the playoffs nine times, lost in the first round four times, and now have advanced to round two twice. Twice.
Out of the six playoff years in that time frame this year was certainly the least likely to find postseason success yet here we are because of a physical, gutsy playoff series against the Vancouver Canucks.
I wrote an article last week with the series 3-1 Calgary entitled Gravy, and the gravy just keeps on a flowing. Teams in year two of a rebuild generally aren’t contemplating being underdogs in the second round. They’re licking their wounds from a 50 point season and looking forward to the draft in June. Instead the Flames had contributions from 6 different rookies and two impact second year players and are looking to play into May. That just doesn’t happen, or it certainly hasn’t in this city.
So what happens next? How much gravy can a city honestly consume?
Calgary Flames vs Anaheim Ducks
Back in 2004, the last time they won a round in a playoff series the situation was very similar. The Flames weren’t expected to be a top five pick as they finished 6th in the west, but they did upset a stronger Vancouver club, and like this spring they did go into the second round against a team they had little chance in beating; the Detroit Red Wings.
Instead of calling it a year, they road the back of a strong series from Miikka Kiprusoff and shocked the Wings in six games.
Can history repeat itself in Anaheim? In a building that the Flames haven’t tasted regular season success in 10 years? With a goaltender looking to upset his former teammates that had let two youngsters pass him on the depth chart just last season?
So many delicious story lines.
Goaltending:
Heading into the playoffs I built my draft around the notion that the Ducks would get tossed by the upstart Winnipeg Jets in 6 games due to the inexperience of Frederik Anderson. That plan wasn’t as sound as I thought. The Jets were really dinged up and had little chance to succeed as it turned out, but Anderson was also solid in helping his team to three come from behind victories. In the series he very much looked the part of a NHL goaltender that doesn’t allow that next goal when his team needs him to shut the door the most.
The Flames went with Hiller in the first round, which made sense given the injury to Ramo, but wasn’t likely the plan as early as 10 days before the playoffs when it appeared Ramo had the edge. He was solid in putting the Canucks away as he posted a 2.20 GAA and a .931 save percentage despite getting pulled twice. Having said that it wasn’t without some tense play in front of his net as Hiller and his down as quick as you can style generated a lot of rebounds against a team that didn’t really have the gumption to bust their way in and retrieve pucks.
I’m worried that won’t be the case against Anaheim.
I’m guessing however, the Flames will be tougher to contain off the rush and Anderson will struggle.
Edge Calgary.
Defensemen:
Well we all know the story in Calgary. They are without defenders 1, 6 and 7, they no longer like 8, are dressing 9 and may travel with 10. Number 1 is now stick handling in pre game skates leaving the Bruce Boudreau (Ducks coach) to prepare his team for a comeback that the Flames and most insiders are listing as doubtful. Against Vancouver the Flames were able to ride one pairing, and one guy (Brodie) a lot because the series wasn’t that physical in the Calgary zone. Once again that won’t be the case against Anaheim.
The Ducks did a lot of tinkering with their D corps at the trade deadline bringing in Simon Despres and James Wisniewski to bolster their depth. They rely on some seriously talented younger defenders in Fowler, Vaatanen and Lindholm which could be a weakness should the Flames get in on the forecheck and cause havoc. The other day Micheal (why would anyone spell Michael that way?) Ferland when asked who he would target in this series seemed to be letting the Flames game plan slip when he caught himself and then said “everyone” or something to taht effect. But rest assured if the Flames can light up the young D corps physically we may see Wisniewski inserted in this series and an interesting story unfolding.
As it stands though the Ducks get a big edge on the blueline, it wouldn’t be the case if the Flames had Giordano necessarily, but they don’t, so the Ducks do get the nod. The one caveat on this pick is TJ Brodie; if he continues with his play of the first round he closes the gap quickly and possibly swings things in Calgary’s favour. The guy was solid from October to February, but he’s found another level in mid to late April.
Advantage Ducks.
Forwards:
Any team with two elite centers is going to get the edge when it comes to forwards. It’s just too key in how a team plays in all three zones. The Flames can lick their chops because of their last two entry drafts that they too will be in this position as early as next season but for now the Monahan/Backlund or Monahan/Stajan answer to Getzlaf and Kessler just won’t get it done.
Look for Stajan to draw in against Getzlaf as I figure the Ducks will be trying to use Kessler against the Monahan line. That may switch up in Calgary when Hartley gets the last chance but we will see it Thursday and Sunday in the Honda Center. If Stajan can nullify the top line the series may just fall to the Backlund line lined up against Rakell as a pitched battle for secondary scoring.
Both teams have youth, both teams have vets, both teams have depth so it shapes up to be an interesting battle, but once again with Getzlaf and Kessler the edge goes to Anaheim.
Advantage Ducks.
Coaching:
Bruce Boudreau is battling the 2nd round blues, which can be just the inner head juju the Flames need to catch the Ducks on their heels. In Washington and Anaheim the red faced veteran coach has been unable to win series number two so you know there will be storylines and pressure points from Canadian and LA media pointing that out if the Flames can split this weekend.
The Flames are, as I stated dripping with gravy (there has to be a duck / poultry angle here somewhere), something that Hartley has used expertly in keeping his young team loose and ready to roll. The Flames are a tough team to face because they shed off both failure and success quickly, a huge factor in the playoffs.
Hartley badly out coached Desjardins in the first round in how he managed his bench and went with hot hands and momentum building players instead of rolling four lines. His line matching or unmatching in Calgary played a huge role in Calgary winning all three home games.
Boudreau is good, but Hartley is great …
Advantage Calgary
Intangibles:
The intangibles in this series are a little harder to call then the Calgary Vancouver series, where I had Canuck veterans more tense and afraid of failure than they’re likely to see from the Ducks. Their core has rings from 2007, the ultimate experience to deal with adversity as a series unfolds.
The Flames, as we’ve noted in the first series, seem to be either unphased or completely unaware how tense playoff hockey is supposed to be something that may not give them an edge, but will at least dampen the difference in this category. Calgary’s young team is getting better before our very eyes, something Boudreau is well aware of he stresses to his team the importance of winning both games in Anaheim this week.
The crowd in Calgary plays a role too, the young Flames have bought into the notion that the CofRed is worth at least a goal a game. They believe it. They plan for it. They count on it. Will that be enough though?
Advantage Ducks, but could change on a dime.
The Pick:
This is a matchup of the third best team in the NHL against the 16th, it should end in an Anaheim series win.
I won’t break that mold as I do see the Ducks prevailing when the dust settles. The key for me though is how long it takes, and how much of a battle they face in the Flames. If Calgary had Mark Giordano and to a lesser extent Lance Bouma I think they could actually take this thing seven, they don’t so I see the Ducks taking the series in 5 very well contested games.
My fear is that Duck forwards won’t be happy to stickhandling and play catch behind the Flames net hoping for the Flames to leave space for that Sedin bang home play in front of the cage. They’ll wrap the net, crash the paint and wear out the Calgary defense which is depleted.
Would love to be wrong!
