On Saturday night the HNIC crew thought it best to run the lottery simulation 100 times and report the results. They were in and around the actual odds as expected, which proves my coming point. Don’t run the thing 100 times, run it once and get your head around what that would mean.
Every day between now and April 30th Calgarypuck will run the simulator once and then look at what that would mean. We will assess the result on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being the worst (see Edmonton) and 10 (Flames land Matthews) being the best.
April 12th – 18 Days to the Lottery
The Good:
I’d have to be super cheery person to find much “good” in this lottery result. The Oilers, the least deserving franchise in hockey wins the first pick and with it will add generational talent light to generational talent prime from last season in Connor McDavid. However at least spots two and three were filled with teams that did anything but tank down the stretch, as both clubs won expectantly and truly played the role of spoiler for teams looking to lock down division titles or playoff spots. If I’m really reaching at least the Leafs and Canucks were shut out.
The Bad:
As said above, the Oilers in top spot is about as bad as it can get. From the Flames perspective not great as well as they move down two spots while watching their provincial rival steal the show. At pick number seven the Flames get a great player but will be taking what is left rather than having choices from the perceived top 7 players available.
Simulation Rating:
I give this a 1 out of 10. The only way the Flames could have moved back three spots to 8th is if all of Toronto, Edmonton and Vancouver failed to win the lottery, so in relative terms drafting 8th isn’t that bad. Drafting 7th with the Oilers winning the lottery is about as painful as it can get.
The Picks:
1. Edmonton – Matthews
2. Winnipeg – Laine
3. New Jersey – Puljujärvi
4. Toronto – Nylander (once again the Leafs take Nylander to complete the set)
5. Vancouver – Chychrun (Benning hinted at a defenseman, it’s their lucky day)
6. Columbus – Tkachuk
7. Calgary – Dubois
Flames Pick:
The Flames pick Dubois again today as they held that same 7th pick in both simulations. The Jackets have the makings of a solid blueline so I don’t see them going off the board for a defenseman, and Tkachuk is the perfect pick in the sixth spot. Speaking of the 6th spot, any one else nervous with the Flames taking a Tkachuk at 6 after the failed drafting of Tkaczuk at 6 in 1997? Different spelling but some bad karma perhaps.
Simulation Summary (2 Iterations)
Flames Pick Average 7.0
Poll Average 3.8/10
Day 1 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 3.8/10
