On Saturday night the HNIC crew thought it best to run the lottery simulation 100 times and report the results. They were in and around the actual odds as expected, which proves my coming point. Don’t run the thing 100 times, run it once and get your head around what that would mean.
Every day between now and April 30th Calgarypuck will run the simulator once and then look at what that would mean. We will assess the result on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being the worst (see Edmonton) and 10 (Flames land Matthews) being the best.
April 20th – 10 Days to the Lottery
The Good:
That’s easy. No Edmonton and no Vancouver, did I mention no Edmonton? Both of Calgary’s chief rivals spiral out of the top three along with the Flames leaving the Leafs and Canes from the East, and the somewhat rival Jets. Certainly could be worse from a who got the top three picks standpoint.
The Bad:
Winnipeg in existence isn’t ideal. Matthews in Toronto is going to turn our cable sports networks into a very Leaf-centric broadcast (yes I’m tongue in cheek here). The worst though is the Flames moving out of the top six and down to the 7th spot. Sure 8th is possible but I haven’t seen it yet, making 7th seem a little disappointing. There will be a good player available there, but almost like the Monahan draft in 2013 and the Bennett draft of 2014 the Flames are in a spot to take what’s left not make a choice.
Simulation Rating:
I put a lot of onus on where Edmonton and Vancouver end up above all else, so this one gets some credit for putting a spike in their collective hearts as well. However the Flames in the 7th spot is pretty rough. I give it a 4.
The Picks:
1. Toronto – Matthews (tanking works!)
2. Winnipeg – Laine
3. Carolina – Puljujärvi
4. Edmonton – Chychrun (they have to take a dman don’t they?)
5. Vancouver – Olli Juolevi (Vancouver goes somewhat off the board to add a defenseman)
6. Columbus – Tkachuk
7. Calgary – Dubois
Flames Pick:
With the Oilers and Canucks both select defenseman the Flames get somewhat lucky and snag Dubois in the 7th spot, pushing Nylander out of the top 7. It’s somewhat of a consolation prize despite a pretty rough lottery result.
Simulation Summary (5 Iterations)
Flames Pick Average 5.3
Poll Average 4.9/10
Day 1 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 3.8/10
Day 2 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 2.1/10
Day 3 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 5.2/10
Day 4 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 2.3/10
Day 5 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 4.1/10
Day 6 – Flames Pick 2nd, Poll result 9.1/10
Day 7 – Flames Pick 3rd, Poll result 8.8/10
Day 8 – Flames Pick 1st, Poll result 9.3/10
Day 9 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 2.5/10
