April 29th, 2016 | Posted in Commentary
By: D'Arcy McGrath
Last Saturday night the HNIC crew thought it best to run the lottery simulation 100 times and report the results. They were in and around the actual odds as expected, which proves my coming point. Don’t run the thing 100 times, run it once and get your head around what that would mean.
Every day between now and April 30th Calgarypuck will run the simulator once and then look at what that would mean. We will assess the result on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being the worst (see Edmonton) and 10 (Flames land Matthews) being the best.
April 29th – 1 Day to the Lottery
A recurring theme through these daily lottery runs is misery for the Oilers at the expense of the Canucks who seem to have great luck. The Leafs have a tough go again which is great, and at least I set up some draft day intrigue between the Jets and the Coyotes as the GM-less Yotes look to bring Scottsdale native Austin Matthews back to the valley.
Not hard to find the negatives in this one. The Canucks as I said continue to hit the top three on a daily basis exceeding their odds and giving me grey hair. The Flames fall down to the 7th spot again, that lonely I wonder what’s left spot that forces them to take what’s left of the forwards, go off the board, trade down or take a defenseman.
Not all that high … Vancouver gets a lottery pick and the Flames draft in 7th. Seems like a 3 again to me.
1. Winnipeg – Matthews
2. Arizona – Laine
3. Vancouver – Puljujärvi
4. Toronto – Dubois
5. Edmonton- Chychrun
6. Columbus – Tkachuk
7. Calgary – Nylander
Carbon copy of yesterday with the first two spots altered but taking the same players. That leaves the Oilers to take a defenseman, the Jackets to nab Tkachuk and the Flames to take the best player available in the 7th spot with Nylander. It’s interesting I’m getting my head more and more around the Nylander pick with the lottery tomorrow.
Frustrating stat? I’ve had the Canucks in a lottery spot in 9 of the 19 days I’ve run the simulation. What’s up with that?
Simulation Summary (18 Iterations)
Flames Pick Average 4.8
Poll Average 5.3/10
Day 1 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 3.8/10
Day 2 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 2.1/10
Day 3 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 5.2/10
Day 4 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 3.0/10
Day 5 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 4.0/10
Day 6 – Flames Pick 2nd, Poll result 9.0/10
Day 7 – Flames Pick 3rd, Poll result 8.6/10
Day 8 – Flames Pick 1st, Poll result 9.6/10
Day 9 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 2.5/10
Day 10 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 3.2/10
Day 11 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 2.7/10
Day 12 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 1.5/10
Day 13 – Flames Pick 1st, Poll result 9.7/10
Day 14 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 5.3/10
Day 15 – Flames Pick 2nd, Poll result 8.9/10
Day 16 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 4.1/10
Day 17 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 2.2/10
Day 18 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 2.2/10