Flames Future 2004: Combined
Bringing Potential and Likelihood Together
Summer 2004
With a Potential and Likelihood analysis, we've successfully established two very different types of player.
The guy that could be great, and the guy that will be good.
The two lists held side by side will look somewhat different making one wonder which of the two is a true indication of the future of the Calgary Flames.
In an attempt to combat the confusion we combine the two lists with equal weighting in order to come up with a combined prospect list. Whether the two categories should be considered equal is clearly up for debate though an equally effective argument could be made in support of a strong weighting for both categories which leads this writer to believe they are somewhat equal.
By bringing the numbers together we see some players stock rise and still others fall - there is no change at the top, however. Dion Phaneuf, just as any NHL general manager would wish, is the club's top prospect both in terms of potential and the chances of making it to the NHL.
|
Player |
Potential |
Likelihood |
Average |
|
Dion Phaneuf |
4.93 |
4.76 |
4.85 |
|
Tim Ramholt |
3.91 |
4.11 |
4.01 |
|
Eric Nystrom |
3.24 |
4.28 |
3.76 |
|
Kris Chucko |
3.86 |
3.59 |
3.73 |
|
Andrei Medvedev |
4.04 |
2.74 |
3.39 |
|
Brent Krahn |
3.52 |
3.15 |
3.34 |
|
Andrei Taratukhin |
3.50 |
2.86 |
3.18 |
|
Yuri Trubachev |
3.47 |
2.39 |
2.93 |
|
Aki Seitsonen |
2.86 |
3.00 |
2.93 |
|
Dustin Boyd |
3.29 |
2.36 |
2.82 |
|
Brandon Prust |
2.70 |
2.90 |
2.80 |
|
Tomi Maki |
2.86 |
2.73 |
2.80 |
|
Brian McConnell |
3.00 |
2.50 |
2.75 |
|
Jonas Frogren |
2.75 |
2.75 |
2.75 |
|
Jamie Tardif |
2.81 |
2.50 |
2.66 |
|
Curtis McElhinney |
2.88 |
2.38 |
2.63 |
|
David Van Der Gulik |
2.90 |
2.20 |
2.55 |
|
Brennan Evans |
2.20 |
2.60 |
2.40 |
|
Roman Rozakov |
2.63 |
2.09 |
2.36 |
|
Richie Regehr |
2.30 |
2.20 |
2.25 |
|
Pierre Johnsson |
2.14 |
2.21 |
2.18 |
|
Dimitri Kokorev |
2.38 |
1.63 |
2.00 |
|
Two players that have had their averages dramatically enhanced by bringing the Likelihood rating into play are Eric Nystrom and 2004 draft pick Brandon Prust. Nystrom moves from 9th on the Potential list to 3rd on the Combined list, a spot increase of six spots. Prust turns a distant 17th place rank on the Potential list into an 11th place ranking on the Combined list due to his 7th place rank on the Likelihood list.
Similarly, some players took a beating when Likelihood was introduced to Potential.
Calgary's rotund Russian goalie prospect, Andrei Medvedev slipped to the fifth spot overall from his perch at 2nd on the Potential list due to his weight and attitude issues. Clearly Flames fans question whether he'll ever come over.
Recent draft pick Dustin Boyd lost two positions in his ranking when he fell to 17th spot on the Likelihood ranking, with fans seeing the center prospect as a clear hit or miss with little in between.
The List
The resulting rank gives a pretty good look into the somewhat imminent future of the Calgary Flames.
Overall, the list shows four prospects that average a combined rating greater than 3.50, suggesting Calgary fans see them as pretty sure bets to make the grade and have an impact when they arrive.
Dion Phaneuf and Tim Ramholt are the clubs two best prospects and could both make an appearance on the club's blueline within the next couple of years.
The next two ranked players are forwards with Eric Nystrom and Kris Chuck likely penciled in on opposite wings, spaced by two to three years in development.
After that things get somewhat dicey with two goaltenders with unquestionable talent and highly questionable stumbling blocks to their respective careers.
The rest of the list shakes out to be somewhat of a question mark that will have to be revisited each summer.
The analysis of last summer has graduated three players to the NHL over the course of a year.
The #2 ranked combined prospect, Chuck Kobasew spent the entire year in Calgary on the fourth line and picked up invaluable experience in the club's playoff run.
The fourth ranked Blair Betts had a great start in Calgary but was hurt twice and was dealt to the Rangers in the Chris Simon deal at the trade deadline.
Finally, in an example of a dark horse catching fire and making a greater impact than expected, the 8th ranked Matthew Lombardi played the whole season in Calgary and appears to have a bright future at center ice for the Flames (Hatcher hit damage withstanding). Lombardi finished 8th in both Potential and Likelihood last summer.
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