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Future Flames 2002
Rating Success: Right on the Money
Often it's helpful to glance into the past when assessing a view of the future.
Nothing could be more true than when assessing hockey prospects. Has the group been too lenient, overlooking serious issues with players and projecting them higher than they could ever hope to achieve? Or is the opposite true; has the group been too stern with the future, not giving credit where credit was clearly due?
As I'm sure you can guess, the answer almost always lies somewhere in the middle.
With a body of data that now stretches three summers the answers to some of the questions above are starting to come into focus.
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Matched Players |
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Player |
Year |
Rating |
Result |
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Toni Lydman |
2000 |
3.6 |
3.0 |
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Sergei Varlamov |
2000 |
2.6 |
2.0 |
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Tyrone Garner |
2000 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
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Chris Clark |
2001 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
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Most of the 2000 prospect are beginning to make a name for themselves, or are spinning towards bust status, while others are still plodding along, years from revealing their final destination.
The study gets more vague when assessing the 2o01 class, and of course down right sketchy when the 2002 group is put under the microscope.
The following table depicts players that have made it to the NHL in a role very similar to their Calgarypuck.com prospect assessment, or have disappeared into oblivion as many had expected.
Toni Lydman 2000 (3.6) - Lydman joined the Calgary Flames for the beginning of the 2000-01 season, and acquitted himself quite well through two full seasons at the NHL level. During the summer of 2000, Calgarypuck.com assessed the player a 3.6 rating, suggesting his potential to fall somewhere between an average defenceman, or a solid defenceman. A role he is currently holding down.
Sergei Varlamov 2000 (2.6) - Sergei Varlamov was a Cinderella story waiting to happen in Calgary. The undrafted junior scoring star was discovered at a local Calgary rink and signed as a free agent. He was traded to the St. Louis Blues at the 2001 entry draft as part of the Roman Turek trade. Varlamov made the Blues out of camp this past season, but spent a lot of time on the bench and in the press box. His move to the NHL seems to be in the vicinity of his 2.6 (below average) rating by Calgarypuck.com during the summer of 2000.
Tyrone Garner 2000 (1.0) - Tyrone Garner came to the Flames as part of the Robert Reichel trade to the New York Islanders at the trade deadline in 1997. He had his 15 minutes of fame, playing three NHL games for the Flames during the 1998-99 season before returning to junior. Since then not only has he not seen the NHL again, but has only played 19 AHL games, being banished to the ECHL for the remainder of his time. The Calgarypuck group rated Garner a 1.0 in 2000 matching his career pattern.
Chris Clark 2001 (2.5) - Chris Clark has progresses slowly but surly through the Calgary Flames system, graduating to the big club on a full time basis this past season. During the summer of 2001 the Calgarypuck group pegged Clark at a below average player, with a rating of 2.5; a mark that appears to match his contribution in Calgary to this point.
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