Daily Lottery Fix – April 12th

April 12th, 2016 | Posted in Commentary | By: D'Arcy McGrath

On Saturday night the HNIC crew thought it best to run the lottery simulation 100 times and report the results. They were in and around the actual odds as expected, which proves my coming point. Don’t run the thing 100 times, run it once and get your head around what that would mean.

Every day between now and April 30th Calgarypuck will run the simulator once and then look at what that would mean. We will assess the result on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being the worst (see Edmonton) and 10 (Flames land Matthews) being the best.

April 12th – 18 Days to the Lottery


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Daily Lottery Fix – April 11th

April 11th, 2016 | Posted in Commentary | By: D'Arcy McGrath

On Saturday night the HNIC crew thought it best to run the lottery simulation 100 times and report the results. They were in and around the actual odds as expected, which proves my coming point. Don’t run the thing 100 times, run it once and get your head around what that would mean.

Every day between now and April 30th Calgarypuck will run the simulator once and then look at what that would mean. We will assess the result on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being the worst (see Edmonton) and 10 (Flames land Matthews) being the best.

April 11th – 19 Days to the Lottery

The Good:

The Flames had two teams behind them win lottery spots, but not three so they remain in the top seven – many see the top 7 as a pretty key line over the rest of the top ten with some options. Of the two teams that passed them both are Canadian and somewhat likeable (read no rivalry with the Flames and their fans). Success for Ottawa and Winnipeg certainly doesn’t stick in the craw of the average Calgarian the way an Edmonton, Vancouver or to a lesser extent Toronto win would.

The Bad:

Vancouver right there at the top. The Flames would be faced with a Western Canadian rivalry with McDavid in Edmonton and Matthews in Vancouver for the next ten or so years. Can certainly be managed, but not an ideal outcome by any standard for Flames fans.

Simulation Rating:

I give this a 4 out of 10. The Flames don’t move up, a rival gets the phenom, but the solace is the Leafs and Oilers both getting punched out of the top three. A good result for future tanking clubs to consider in future seasons.

The Picks:

1. Vancouver – Matthews
2. Winnipeg – Laine
3. Ottawa РPuljujärvi
4. Toronto – Nylander
The brothers united has them take Nylander early.
5. Edmonton – Chychrun
Need defensemen more than forwards
6. Columbus – Tkachuk
7. Calgary – Dubois

Flames Pick:

The Flames pick up powerforward P.L. Dubois after narrowly missing Tkachuk falling to them at seven. Although Dubious doesn’t shoot right, he has a decent chance of making the Flames this fall, but it certainly wouldn’t be the end of the world if he goes back to Cape Breton. A highly competitive winger to add to the Flames top six in the next 12 to 24 months. Great building block.


Did The Flames Miss the Playoffs on July 1st?

November 27th, 2015 | Posted in Commentary | By: D'Arcy McGrath

July 1st, the third most interesting player transaction day of the season behind the trade deadline and the NHL Entry Draft.

A chance for hockey teams to bolster their squads for free, well without forfeiting assets anyway, as the day truly is always extremely expensive.

Brian Burke once opined that more mistakes are made on that one day every year than every other day combined by NHL executives.

Which is ironic, because on that day in 2015 Burke’s young Padawan (trying to be new Stars Wars movie hip) may have made his biggest miscalculation in his young GM career. - Full Article –


Flames Notes: Hamilton in the Fold Changes Team Progression

July 1st, 2015 | Posted in Commentary | By: D'Arcy McGrath

I’m a patient guy.

When you hear Brian Burke and Brad Treliving desperately trying to temper expectations after a remarkably successful season that featured a playoff birth and series win, I get it.

The Flames won a lot of games after trailing.
The Flames won a lot of games despite being out “fancied”.
The Kings, Avalanche and Stars all had off years, and should step back into the “norm” when the 2015-16 season comes around.

The Flames were destined to be in a battle and possibly slide back out of the playoff picture, two occurrences that don’t for a second suggest anything is wrong with the rebuild as it stands, nor take the lustre off of a great 2014-15 season.

Did you notice that word “were” in my last statement?
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NHL Draft Success: “The Hossa Rule”

June 22nd, 2015 | Posted in Commentary | By: D'Arcy McGrath

The NHL Entry Draft is one of the most exciting days on the NHL calendar.

Sure no games are played, but future games are envisioned, both in terms of players selected in the 7 rounds and in transactions completed on the draft floor.

Teams are shaped, futures are made more clear (or at least we tell ourselves this), and winners and losers are declared.

For years my rule of thumb in looking back at draft success was the two players selected after each and every Calgary Flames pick. The origin of that saying has something to do with the allowable width of a stick used to hit your wife, so I’ll leave that alone, but the origin of my two pick rule can be traced back to the 1997 draft, and for me will always be known as my “Marian Hossa” rule.
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