Not often does on see the home side lose by four goals, but actually go away thinking an effort was put in. Usually games like that start poorly, and then things either go individual and frustrating or just get mailed in the rest of the way; patrons trying to decide the cost benefit analysis of wasting time to stay versus the sunk cost of the ticket they wish they hadn’t purchased.
Tonight at the Saddledome looked to be one of those nights on the scoreboard, in actual fact it was a game where the Flames could easily have had a different fate.
Three relatively fluky Toronto goals contributed to a lopsided score in a game where Calgary had the majority of the scoring chances. Without the play of Fredrik Andersson this one could have been a 7-6 thriller, but instead it ends 6-2 Toronto.
Line Up Changes
Some change after a third period hiccup and loss to the Wild on Saturday, or Iginla Night.
Oliver Kylington has recovered, so he steps back into the third pairing, replacing countryman Oscar Fantenberg to line up with another Swede, Rasmus Andersson.
No changes to the forward groups at all, including the return of Sam Bennett to line three, after moving up with the second line for much of the last game when Calgary was looking to tie or go ahead.
The big change, of course, comes in net where Mike Smith takes a seat after a rough one last time out, and David Rittich returns. Rittich has looked good in his last two starts, giving up only the single marker in both, albeit against weaker opponents.
Luck vs Skill
One of the silliest leaps of underlying numbers or fancy stats is the belief you can ascertain the degree of good fortune or bad fortune a team accrues by the addition of their team save percentage to their team shooting percentage.
The principal isn’t flawed, the average team shouldn’t be able to exceed the notion of one plus the other shouldn’t exceed 100 or 1.00, but it says very little about a team’s skill.
Take the Toronto Maple Leafs. They lead the league coming into tonight with a PDO of 1.028, a number that would suggest they are “lucky” but almost 3% when it comes to the shooting and saving combination. But are they?
The Leafs have a great degree of offensive skill so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that they have an above average shooting percentage. In this stat they sit 2nd with a 9.95% shooting percentage team wide. The average NHL team this season is shooting 8.03%.
Additionally they have Fredrik Andersson in net, a stopper that would certainly register as one of the league’s better goaltenders. Toronto sits top four in save percentage.
Some times teams are just good. Not necessarily lucky. However with save percentage stats like Andersson’s it does suggest they give up a lot and rely on their goaltender to get them out of trouble, as we clearly saw tonight.
Now What Do They Do?
The Flames have finally lost back to back games in regulation, ending a streak that goes back to November 15th, a large part of the reason the team sits atop their division.
But who starts in Vegas?
On one hand you have Mike Smith who’s gaff in the third period on Saturday night turned a game that was all Calgary to that point int a frustrating 4-2 loss.
Tonight you have David Rittich giving up six goals to the Leafs, with at least one being quite, iffy and three others being unfortunate, but perhaps guilty of playing a little too deep in his net.
So now two guys aren’t going well, and the Flames have themselves the worst kind of goalie controversy. Instead of the backup trying to steal the starting role from the incumbent, you have both guys taking on water without a third option to summon.
All with the playoffs about a month and change away.
Yikes.
Scoring Scarcity Continues
In the Minnesota game story I mentioned the Flames up to that night were winning despite not converting on chances and not shooting lights out.
That trend continues again tonight where the team had just two goals on 37 shots making it four of the last five games that Calgary has shot under 6%. The average NHL team as I said above comes in at 8.03%, so there is a funk at work with Calgary shooters.
The saying has always surrounded looks though, as long as you’re getting the chances the goals will come, and certainly the team is having their share of bad luck as well. Andersson was unbelievable in stopping Czarnik from behind the net, and in gloving a Johnny Gaudreau chance late in the second, but he was also lucky in instances like when Elias Lindholm beat him through the legs only to have the puck squeak out the other side.
You’d have to think they’re due to run one up on an opponent soon.
Third Pairing
I thought Oliver Kylington really struggled tonight, perhaps trying to do too much with the presence of Oscar Fantenberg and possibility of a Juuso Valimaki recall.
He held on to the puck too long too often, creating turnovers and keeping the Flames pinned in their own zone; something that can be seen in his possession stats on the night (one of only two players underwater).
We’ve seen what Fantenberg can do, and I think Kylington is the better option, but he needs to return to that “less is more” mantra if he wants to stay in the lineup. Otherwise a Valimaki recall can’t be too far down the road.
Standings Implications
The biggest standings issue tonight was Calgary using up and wasting their game in hand on San Jose. So that’s a seven point lead down to three points in just three days for the Flames.
With Vegas heating up, San Jose refusing to go away, and the Flames sputtering somewhat (they could have easily won their ninth straight tonight), things are getting a little more sticky atop the division and therefore conference.
The wildcard race is still within four teams and two spots, though the Oilers win in Buffalo did climb them past Chicago and Vancouver and into that bridesmaid position after the advantage four. More importantly it moves Edmonton six points clear of a top five pick in the draft.
Counting Stats
Team Stats:
Shots – Calgary 37 Toronto 32
Face Offs – 52% Toronto
Special Teams – Calgary 1/1 Wild 1/2
Player Stats:
Points – Six players with 1
Plus/Minus – Andrew Mangiapane, Derek Ryan and Austin Czarnik were all +1
Shots – Garnet Hathaway and Mark Jankowski with 4 each.
Fancy Stats
Calgary was running up some pretty good metrics before the Leaf bounces started, and score effects came into place. Five on five the Flames had 58.4% of the shot attempts with period splits of 62%/54% and 61%. The Flames had 54% of the scoring chances and 60% of the high danger chances, giving the Leafs only eight all night.
In all situations Calgary had 58% of the shot attempts 57% of the scoring chances and 61% of the high danger chances (14-9) in the game.
Individually, only two players finished under the 50% mark for the Flames, Oliver Kylington and Michael Frolik who had 49% each. Derek Ryan led the way with 73%. Austin Czarnik (71%), Noah Hanifin, Sam Bennett, Travis Hamonic and Mark Giordano also had solid nights for Calgary.
