Sad, but who didn’t see this one coming?
Sure it didn’t roll out the way I imagined. I had the team much more flat, directly less pucks to the net, and getting hemmed in against an inferior opponent, but the final score and final result went pretty much to script as the Ottawa Senators skate away with a 5-2 decision despite getting out shot 43-20 on Saturday afternoon.
For the Flames it’s just another disappointing chapter of inconsistency on a season where they take a step forward, sometimes two, only to take a step back and keep things very tight in the Pacific.
This one will be a tough one to chew on for the next nine days.
Line Up Changes
Given the hot hand of Cam Tablot (NHL 3rd star of the week), before the reemergence of David Rittich’s game this week, it’s somewhat surprising to see the Flames go back to Rittich again before the break; a move that will essentially leave Talbot with no activity for two weeks.
As a result there are no changes at all in the Flames lineup from the chapter that picked up two points in Toronton on Thursday night.
The forward lines feature Elias Lindholm between Matthew Tkachuk and Andrew Mangiapane. Sean Monahan centers Johnny Gaudreau and Mikael Backlund. Derek Ryan between Milan Lucic and Dillon Dube. While Mark Jankowski lines up between Sam Bennett and Tobias Rieder.
On the blueline the regular look of Mark Giordano with TJ Brodie, Noah Hanifin with Travis Hamonic, and Oliver Kylington with Rasmus Andersson.
The Case of Geoff Ward
Lots to debate in the numbers when you look at Geoff Ward and Bill Peters underlying numbers thus far this season.
The Flames were off to a pretty unfortunate start with middling goaltending (despite the fan fare), and almost league worst team shooting percentages both five on five and on the man advantage. Honestly a run of luck like that was bound to end, and it did.
The Bill Peters teams had a better shot and attempted shot percentage versus the Geoff Ward version, but Ward is getting more saves, and at least a little bit of a boost when it comes to the shooters.
The obvious suggestion is a team that was unlucky under one coach, and then getting more bounces under the new one, both likely to correct. With a 5% boost in PDO that is certainly supported.
Stats that support Ward is doing something better or at least different come in the form of high danger splits with the Flames getting more for, and less against per 60 minutes than they did under Peters. Does that point to the goaltenders making more saves? Less high danger chances mean an easier night? To some degree sure, but you wouldn’t think the change would be that dramatic.
There has certainly been a glaring change is execution. Peters’ team had 47.8% of the high danger chances, but only 35.4% of the high danger goals. Ward is enjoying 51.4% of the high danger chances, but a staggering 69.7% of the actual results. That’s a 7% hike in high danger shooting percentage and a 13% increase in high danger save percentage.
Certainly high danger data has limitations. Chances deemed to be high danger are all treated equally, and perhaps within that there’s an answer with Calgary generating “even more” danger chances, and giving up “much less” dangerous chances against.
It will be interesting to see how these trends workout down the stretch this season. Only the inside walls know what the Flames plans are when it comes to Geoff Ward’s permanency, but should the numbers continue it may be a difficult decision.
Leadership, Focus and Work Ethic
Given what happened in Montreal this week … that is the Flames being a complete no show in somewhat of a trap game, I was interested to see if lessons were learned with the game in Ottawa this afternoon.
The game represented a litany in trap parameters; last game of a road trip, weak opponent, afternoon game, and the big one being the last game before a prolonged all star break.
Overall not a bad effort or start really.
The Senators score on a fluky own goal, but by the midway point in the game the Flames had a 25-7 edge in shots and were carrying the play by a long shot. Two late goals however, and the fact that the Sens had a 4-2 five on five high danger chance split in the second pretty much tore up that good effort start and left the team in quite a hole.
Regardless of how you look at the first forty of action, only getting one shot on goal through 10 minutes of the third despite being down three goals may not have been the best game plan, and/or execution I’ve ever seen.
Nothing ever comes easy with these guys.
Second Line (?) No Show
Pretty disappointing effort from the Monahan line in the game.
With the play pretty much 100% in the Senators zone the trio somehow managed to get trapped on a few occasions and out played substantially by their underlying metrics.
If you had told me three years ago that in 2019-20 the Flames would have formed a top line that didn’t include either of Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau I would think the team was off to the races. Instead the team isn’t enjoying the good fortune of the draft (Tkachuk) or trade market (Lindholm) because of the slide this season in the usual top line.
Today a liability. Both minus players, and neither generating much of anything offensively five on five. When two of your best players are 37% or 42% in terms of xGF% against iffy opposition they didn’t show up.
Counting Stats
Team Stats:
Shots – Flames 42 Senators 21
Face Offs – Flames 40%
Special Teams – Flames 0/3 Senators 1/1
Player Stats:
Points – Single points for all of Mikael Backlund, Mark Jankowski, Noah Hanifin, Mark Giordano and Travis Hamonic in a losing cause.
Plus/Minus – Milan Lucic, Derek Ryan, Dillon Dube and Mark Jankowski were all +1 in a rough afternoon.
Shots – Matthew Tkachuk led all shooters with six shots on goal.
Fancy Stats
The Flames had 73% of the shot attempts, yep you read that right 3/4 shot attempts five on five came off of Calgary sticks in a three goal loss. It’s not on score effects either as the team actually had a declining rate by period as their period splits were 84%/68% and 64%. Five on five high danger scoring 12-10 Calgary, much tighter than you’d think, and certainly where my area of focus would be in analyzing the Flames scoring woes. Calgary had an expected goal split of 70%.
In all situations the Flames had 70.3% of the shot attempts, 55% of the high danger chances (16-13) and an expected goal split of 59%.
Individually players had good nights as well, given the team’s domination five on five. Noah Hanifin and his partner Travis Hamonic led the way with 89% and 88% respectively. Sam Bennett and Andrew Mangiapane were also in the 80s. Mark Jankowski, Tobias Rieder and Milan Lucic all in the high 70s. The only player under 50% was Johnny Gaudreau at 46.7%, his center Sean Monahan at 50% on the button.
As I said earlier they were the only players under 50% in xGF% as well.
