There are games where your goalie is better than the opposing goalie.
And then there are games where your goalie is the only reason a hockey team won a hockey game.
Tonight was one of those nights.
Dustin Wolf was at his absolute best tonight, stopping 38 of the 39 shots he faced in pacing the Flames to a 3-1 win in Winnipeg on Hockey Day in Canada.
The win gives the Flames an even road trip with two wins and two losses, to keep pace in the West for that final wild card spot.
Unbelievable goaltending.
The Lineup
Two straight losses in St. Louis, so yeah some change for the Flames. Joel Hanley sits for Daniil Miromanov, and Walker Duehr takes a night off for Andrei Kuzmenko. No change in goal despite the lopsided loss to St. Louis for Dustin Wolf.
No change at the top; Nazem Kadri between Jonathan Huberdeau and Martin Pospisil, Mikael Backlund back with Blake Coleman and Matt Coronato. A third line with Yegor Sharangovich between Rory Kerins and Andrei Kuzmenko, and a fourth line of Kevin Rooney with Ryan Lomberg and Jakob Pelletier.
One the blueline zero change as it appears the Flames have found a six they’re really happy with. So it’s Rasmus Andersson and Kevin Bahl, Mackenzie Weegar with Daniil Miromanov and Jake Bean with Brayden Pachal on the third pairing.
And if you wanted any proof that the Flames have a hierarchy now in goal, look no forward than this game as Dustin Wolf gets his 2nd straight start despite a rough go in St. Louis Blues.
Pre Game Stats Dive
Have the Flames hit a wall?
They were .500 in their last ten game segment, and .500 in the first four games of the 5th ten game segment of the season, but inside the numbers show some disturbing short term trends.
Seg | CF60 | CA60 | SF60 | SA60 | GF60 | GA60 | xGF60 | xGA60 | HDCF60 | HDCA60 |
1-10 | 58.9 | 66.5 | 26.3 | 32.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 10.5 | 10.4 |
11-20 | 64.0 | 57.7 | 31.1 | 27.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 9.6 | 9.7 |
21-30 | 64.2 | 55.0 | 27.0 | 25.1 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 10.6 | 10.0 |
31-40 | 63.3 | 52.8 | 28.3 | 26.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 10.1 | 10.3 |
41-50 | 64.5 | 56.2 | 28.4 | 27.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 8.6 | 12.7 |
Expected for goals are down, expected goals against are up, but look at the high danger numbers … A season low per 60 for high danger chances for in the four games, and easily a season high for what they’re giving up as well.
Putting a lot of pressure on young goaltenders.
Naturally the percentages tell the same story.
Segment | SH% | SV% | CF% | SF% | GF% | xGF% | HDCF% | PDO |
1-10 | 8.7% | 93.3% | 47.0% | 44.9% | 51.4% | 47.8% | 50.3% | 102.0 |
11-20 | 5.8% | 95.2% | 52.6% | 52.9% | 57.7% | 48.7% | 49.7% | 101.0 |
21-30 | 6.3% | 88.8% | 53.8% | 51.9% | 37.8% | 52.1% | 51.5% | 95.1 |
31-40 | 7.8% | 95.0% | 54.5% | 51.3% | 62.1% | 53.5% | 49.4% | 102.8 |
41-50 | 7.6% | 92.0% | 53.5% | 51.1% | 50.0% | 49.9% | 40.6% | 99.7 |
Under water in expected goal splits (just), and way under water in high danger splits.
Shooting percentage and save percentage holding their own, putting the team in a 99.7 PDO (essentially break even).
This season has always seemed to be on the backs of their goaltenders. When they are the team’s best players, as we saw in segment four the team has a chance. When they’re human things get ugly quickly.
Flames 2024 Draft Class
A quick look in on the Flame’s 2024 draft class as they continue to make waves in their respective leagues.
GP | Pts | PPG | PPG 23/24 | YoY | |
Parekh | 35 | 46 | 1.31 | 1.45 | 90% |
Gridin | 39 | 50 | 1.28 | 1.38 | 93% |
Basha | 23 | 29 | 1.26 | 1.35 | 93% |
Battaglia | 40 | 53 | 1.33 | 0.97 | 137% |
Mews | 4 | 7 | 1.75 | 1.21 | 145% |
Misa | 40 | 53 | 1.33 | 1.23 | 108% |
All six players with a point per game or better.
Three players with more in terms of points per game than their draft year.
Henry Mew
s who was dealt to Sudbury last week has 7 points in four games with his new team.
Andrew Basha remains injured, and reportedly had surgery.
Wolf’s Start
Not sure he could play any better.
Sharp as a tack from beginning to end, and literally stole one for the Flames at the end of their road trip.
Badly out shot in the first period, but the Flames come out with the lead.
Had less to do in the second, but only comparatively as he still had to make some great stops.
Then has to literally hold the fort in the third with the Flames sitting on a two goal lead.
Elite goaltender.
The Jets with an eye popping 4.25 expected goals in all situations, but Wolf gives up just the one tally.
Odds and Sods
I’m going to assume that Ryan Huska thinks Andrei Kuzmenko is far from designed for fourth line work with the Walker Duehr scratch, as Jakob Pelletier slid down to take Duehr’s spot. Pelletier has put together some of his best hockey as a Flames in recent weeks, so an odd time for a demotion. … That first period was all Dustin Wolf. The Flames escape with a 1-0 lead, but it could have easily been 3-1 for the home side. Wolf is elite. … The Flames were much better to start the second period, climbing back into it territorially and making it more of a game. … Bit of a rough night by Kevin Bahl; some tough reads and some lazy sticks. … Rory Kerins with another assist tonight, that’s four assists in four games in the NHL. Deadbeat can’t score goals though, just saying. … Man can Matt Coronato motor this season. He’s a completely different skater than he was last season. Danielle Fujita is a miracle worker! … I’ve said it before but why, pray tell why, don’t the Winnipeg Jets wear those uniforms permanently? They are by far their best looking tarps. … Does that help Dustin Wolf towards a potential Calder Trophy win? Hockey Night in Canada on Hockey Day in Canada but with an earlier start with more East eyes on his play? Can’t hurt.
Fancy Stats
If the visual test didn’t tell you, the underlying stats certainly suggest this one was all Winnipeg. It wasn’t really all that close. The Flames, five on five, had 33% (45%/25%/30%) of the shot attempts, 19% of the high danger chances, and 23% of the expected goals. In all situations they had 34% of the shot attempts, 20% of the high danger chances and 32% of the expected goals.
Statistically this was the worst game the Flames have played this season.
Individually, the Flames were led by Blake Coleman posting an xGF% of 63% on the night. He was joined at 63% by his centerman Mikael Backlund. No other player was above 50%. Shout out to Jake Bean and Matt Coronato who were in the 40s. The rest of the team was under 30%. Ryan Lomberg, Kevin Rooney and Jakob Pelletier were under 5%. That fourth line is just getting worked.