Are the wheels finally coming off?
When the Flames got obliterated in Pittsburgh this year, back on November 30th it felt like that slipping moment. Yet they got back off the matt and kept finding points.
The season didn’t end.
So I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt after a lopsided loss to the Avalanche tonight, coming off a lopsided loss to the Maple Leafs on Tuesday night.
But that’s two straight games where the Flames looked way over their heads against teams with elite skill and a work ethic to match.
Has the league ramped up again and this is it?
The Lineup
The Flames were sloppy and out of character on Tuesday night, but despite falling flat on their collective face, Ryan Huska is showing some faith in the roster by only making one change (affecting two defense pairings).
Into the lineup is Daniil Miromanov, and out of the lineup is Tyson Barrie.
No change to the forward group; Nazem Kadri with wing Jonathan Huberdeau and Joel Farabee. Mikael Backlund with Blake Coleman and Matt Coronato. The highly effective new third line (2nd line?) of ex Flyer Morgan Frost with Yegor Sharangovich and Martin Pospisil. And finally a fourth line of Kevin Rooney between Ryan Lomberg and Adam Klapka.
On the blueline, it’s one swap, effecting two defense pairings. Joel Hanley with Rasmus Andersson, Mackenzie Weegar with Daniil Miromanov, and Bean moving back with Brayden Pachal.
In goal Dustin Wolf gets the start, despite giving up five on Tuesday night.
Pre Game Stats Dive
The Flames have been sputtering, with a sub optimal record of 5-6-0 since a home ice win over the Chicago Blackhawks.
That won’t get it done.
| Segment | SH% | SV% | CF% | SF% | GF% | xGF% | HDCF% | PDO |
| 1-10 | 8.7% | 93.3% | 47.0% | 44.9% | 51.4% | 47.8% | 50.3% | 102.0 |
| 11-20 | 5.8% | 95.2% | 52.6% | 52.9% | 57.7% | 48.7% | 49.7% | 101.0 |
| 21-30 | 6.3% | 88.8% | 53.8% | 51.9% | 37.8% | 52.1% | 51.5% | 95.1 |
| 31-40 | 7.8% | 95.0% | 54.5% | 51.3% | 62.1% | 53.5% | 49.4% | 102.8 |
| 41-50 | 7.9% | 92.4% | 49.8% | 49.1% | 50.0% | 47.7% | 43.6% | 100.3 |
| 51-60 | 2.9% | 89.7% | 50.2% | 50.0% | 22.2% | 48.6% | 48.0% | 92.6 |
The first three games of the 6th segment have had both sides of their game implode; they can’t score, and they’re giving up goals at a higher rate.
Their actual goal split in the three games is only 22%.
Ironically, some of their underlying stats are actually better in the three games, than in the previous ten game segment where they went 6-4-0; including splits for shot attempts, shots, and expected goals.
They are on a 91 point pace, which would have them tied with Vancouver for the last playoff position. To achieve the 91 points they’d need a record something like 15-12-2. That’s certainly not impossible, but sputtering along at .500 much longer will make it a tall order.
Wolf’s Start
Air tight first period for Dustin Wolf.
Sure he gave up a goal that was waived off, but if they don’t count, they don’t count.
Wolf under siege again the second and finally bends, with the Avalanche scoring three goals, two on the powerplay to take what felt like a pretty commanding lead.
I wouldn’t say Wolf had much of a chance on any of them.
A breakaway goal in the third period where once again Wolf had no chance.
Not much a goalie can do when the team in front of them lost the script.
The Avalanche generate 4.19 expected goals in all situations, and Wolf is touched up for four … edging out the expected.
Odds and Sods
Ryan Huska continued his pattern of not inserting players when they are first called up; he likes to see them watch a game and practice before playing. That’s the case for both Illya Solovyov and Dryden Hunt tonight. … What’s with this run of five on threes for the Flames. I swear you usually only see a handful all season, but now we’ve seen four of them in three games and all three games with a five on three goal. Crazy. … What was Jonathan Drouin doing? You see close calls at the blueline, pucks that just kreep over, a toe off side, but Drouin, watching the play just went in early. Inexplicable. … A sketchy first period for the Flames, which isn’t a good sign after the Toronto game. The Avalanche had all kinds of zone time and high danger chance but were thwarted by Wolf. Calgary with decent zone time and flow, but just giving up too much when they break down. Flames escape with a 1-0 lead to show for it. Jonathan Huberdeau with his 21st of the season on a five on three powerplay. … Nasty second period for the Flames as the Avalanche just ran all over them. The Avalanche with two quick goals to erase the Flames lead and take a 2-1 advantage. The Flames fumble the puck around for the rest of the period before Necas scores on a late powerplay putting the Avs up 3-1. … Five on five the Avalanche had an 11-1 lead in high danger chances through 40 minutes. The Flames just don’t have the horses to compete with high skill teams. … Calgary was much better in the third period, as they got their feet moving, and were more engaged in puck battles. They simply have to play this way or they are dead in the water.
Fancy Stats
Just like the Toronto game, this one wasn’t ever really that close. Oh sure the Flames had a 1-o lead after one period, but they did that in a period where they were 15% in expected goals five on five. It got worse from there. All Avalanc
| Time | xGF | xGA | xGF60 | xGA60 | xGF% | |
| 5 on 5 | 44.5 | 1.24 | 2.88 | 1.67 | 3.88 | 30.1% |
| 5 on 4 | 8.5 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 3.61 | 0.00 | 100.0% |
| 4 on 5 | 5.2 | 0.22 | 0.57 | 2.56 | 6.64 | 27.8% |
| Other | 1.9 | 0.21 | 0.74 | 6.75 | 23.79 | 22.1% |
| Total | 60.0 | 2.18 | 4.19 | 2.18 | 4.19 | 34.2% |
| PP/PK | 13.6 | 0.73 | 0.57 | 3.21 | 2.51 | 56.2% |
he tonight. The Flames, five on five, had 38% (40%/17%/50%) of the shot attempts, 17% of the high danger chances, and 30% of the expected goals. In all situations they had 42% of the shot attempts, 20% of the high danger chances and 34% of the expected goals.
That’s one of the most lopsided games I’ve ever written up.
Individually, the Flames were led by their fourth line; no you’re not having a stroke. The rest of the team was under water. Adam Klapka with limited ice time posted an xGF% of 69% on the night. He was joined by his linemates Kevin Rooney and Ryan Lomberg at 57% and 53%. Nazem Kadri was in the 40s, and the rest of the team was worse! Mikael Backlund and Yegor Sharangovich were under 10%.
