That was a night.
The Flames were the better team through two periods, and with that nursed a 3-2 lead into the final frame.
But then they completely sat on the one goal margin and got run over in the third period by a desperate Canucks team who were able to tie it up, force over time and win it in a shoot out.
Dustin Wolf and Jonathan Huberdeau were the story for the Flames; Wolf with a dominant game to keep his team in it (the Canucks with almost five expected goals) and Huberdeau with a shorty, a powerplay goal, and a shoot out goal to prolong things.
The loss (but gained point) puts the teams even with the Flames having a game in hand.
The Lineup
Not a single change for tonight’s important game. Same 12 forwards, same 6 defensemen, same starting goaltender, and no change in lines or pairings.
Nazem Kadri with Jonathan Huberdeau and Matt Coronato, Joel Farabee with Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman, third line of Morgan Frost between Yegor Sharangovich and Martin Pospisil, and then a fourth line with Connor Zary sliding down to play with Ryan Lomberg and Kevin Rooney.
On the blueline no change as well; Kevin Bahl with Rasmus Andersson and Joel Hanley and Mackenzie Weegar, and then the third pairing of Jake Bean with Brayden Pachal.
Dustin Wolf gets the start in goal coming off a shutout over Montreal on Saturday.
Stats Dive
I hate to be a Debbie Downer, but I always find it interesting how wrapped up the media can be on surface level stats without looking much further.
Talk of the town of late is the new third line, and the awakening of Joel Farabee.
Farabee scoring is a good story for the Flames, and he’s full marks for making great offensive plays in back to back games for key goals that helped the Flames secure three points.
But the line with Blake Coleman and Mikael Backlund has been somewhat of a tire fire in metrics.
Mikael Backlund has centered four different lines this year that were together 40 or more minutes.
With Matt Coronato and Blake Coleman they played to 54.7% in expected goal splits and had 2.18 in expected goals against / 60. That with a very large sample size of 382 minutes.
Backlund with Coronato and Yegor Sharangovic barely missed a beat posting 52.7% and 2.32 / 60.
With Coleman and Connor Zary it slips a bit to 49.6% and 2.69 / 60.
However Backlund with Coleman and Farabee is way down at 36.5% and a whopping 4.18 expected goals against / 60.
Part of that is a slip in Backlund, as he’s been a shadow of his former self in the last month, and part of the trio only together for games in Carolina, Philly, Dallas and against Montreal (some heavy hitters).
But that is far from the type of numbers you expect or desire from a shut down forward group.
Wolf’s Start
Had no chance on the goal that beat him in the first period, an own goal deflection off of Hanley.
Second period pretty much the same story, this time not a fluke, but a tip by Debrusk that Wolf has zero chance on.
The Flames doing well to limit shots; only 13 on Wolf through two periods.
Calgary sits on the lead in the third period, so it’s an onslaught by the Canucks on Wolf. He finally surrenders that tying goal sending it to overtime.
Wolf with more work than Lankinen in the overtime, but pushes it to overtime.
Vancouver with 4.69 expected goals in all situations, with 2.76 of that number coming in the third period. Wolf only gives up three for a huge point stolen again by the goaltender.
Odds and Sods
It’s tough sledding cheering for a hockey team that can’t score to win games and make the playoffs. Most fans spent the first half of the season with an expectation that the team wasn’t going to make it, and that Dustin Wolf was mortal, only to find themselves tuning in for grinding, low scoring, everything matters hockey games in the second half. With the trade deadline 5 days behind us it’s only getting worse! … Funny in the pre pre game Sam Constentino’s game note was the even goalie battle. Huh? One goalie is ranked 8-10th in key stats, the other one 28-31st. That’s elite starter vs weak starter. … Flames the better team in the first period but it’s the Canucks that score first; a fluke goal off of Hanley’s skate and over Wolf’s shoulder. Calgary keeps pressing and ties it up when Rasmus Andersson threads the puck through both Pettersson defensemen and scores deking around Lankinen. Terrible play by Marcus Pettersson to just let Kadri go thinking he was going backhand. … Mikael Backlund left late in the first period and didn’t return. Injury looked to have happened on a hit on Mancini. The Flames shuffled the deck by moving Connor Zary between Blake Coleman and Joel Farabee, and then rotated wingers through the fourth line. … Whether or not you thought Quinn Hughes embellished a bit on the Lomberg crosscheck that’s three dumb penalties that either directly or indirectly led to two Vancouver goals. Have to be smarter in a huge game. Zary in the first period, Lomberg and Pachal in the second. Luckily the third dumb penalty led to a Jonathan Huberdeau shorthanded goal on a nice pass from Kevin Rooney. … Then a dumb Vancouver penalty led to a mysterious Huberdeau powerplay goal with literally nobody; the goal judge, the tv crew or 11 of the 12 players on the ice had any idea. The only guy that saw it was in was the quietest guy in Flames history in Yegor Sharangovich, but he says nothing and we wait for 10 seconds before it’s confirmed. … What a stick check by Kevin Bahl on Connor Garland to wrap up the second period. … I was hard on the third line above, but that doesn’t take away from the burst we are seeing from Joel Farabee. More speed. More grit. Better hands. He seemed to be heading to the fourth line before the game in Philly. Now he’s a prominent part of the team. … Thought Connor Zary filled in really well for Backlund in his absence. … Another Zary penalty in the third; this time an accidental high stick puts the Canucks back on the powerplay. Calgary kills it off with some key blocked shots from Hanley and Coleman. … Calgary was just terrible in the third period, pretty much sitting on a one goal lead and letting Vancouver take the game to them. So of course the Canucks tie it when a puck to the net creates a rebound and a Elias Pettersson rebound goal. … Sharangovich with a nightmare third period. Failed to get pucks out. Weak on puck battles. Just lost. … Flames game management in overtime was atrocious. Missed easy change opportunities often and with that got stuck on the ice too long. Especially the trio of Huberdeau/Weegar and Kadri. … Vancouver wins it in a shoot out in round four.
Fancy Stats
For two periods the Flames were really good on home ice. They took stupid penalties, but five on five they were the better team. In the third though? Just a mess. They sat on it and paid for it. The Flames, five on five, had 54% (66%/58%/40%) of the shot attempts, 47% of the high danger chances, and 35% of the expected goals. In all situations they had 47% of the shot attempts, 39% of the high danger chances and 31% of the expected goals.
Through two periods the Flames had a 10-5 edge in high danger chances in all situations, the Canucks were 13-2 in the third period. That is an abomination of a period.
Individually, the Flames were led by Blake Coleman (Rooney and Lomberg at 100% but with no minutes) with an xGF% of 78% on the night. Joel Farabee and Rasmus Andersson were in the 60s. The Frost line (with Sharangovich and Pospisil) got filled in with single digit numbers on the night.
