A solid road game.
A familiar result.
No points.
The Flames had their one game win streak snapped with a 4-3 loss in Toronto on Tuesday night. The team was very effective five on five, but were burned by taking too many penalties, and having way too many turnovers in a game that felt like one that got away.
Sam Honzek with his first NHL goal, Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee with the goals on the night.
Next up the Senators on Thursday night.
The Lineup
Tough decisions when you have a player sat for a game that results in a 5-1 victory. You’ve already said he’ll be back in, but who comes out when the team finally won a game? Short answer … Adam Klapka.
Ryan Huska is leaving the top nine alone despite the entry of Matt Coronato into the mix; Morgan Frost moves to the wing to play with Jonathan Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri. The other three lines are somewhat familiar; Connor Zary between Joel Farabee and Yegor Sharangovich and Mikael Backlund with Sam Honzek and Blake Coleman. The new fourth line is Justin Kirkland between Ryan Lomberg and Matt Coronato.
Coronato is slated to be on powerplay one to up his ice time.
Some stability on the blueline; it’s Kevin Bahl with Rasmus Andersson, Jake Bean with Mackenzie Weegar and Joel Hanley with Zayne Parekh.
Dustin Wolf, who was brilliant in the Ranger game is back in the nets.
Stats Dive
Despite scoring five goals against the Rangers on Sunday night, the Flames are still dead last in the NHL when it comes to scoring.
After that outburst we are seeing a move towards the mean when it comes to some sputtering offensive players finding their way at least to some degree.
A good way to look at the holes in the lineup is expected goals vs actual goals and sort out the biggest variances. Justin Kirkland for example, hasn’t been on the ice for a single goal for this season, but when you look at the expected total for the player he’s only about a goal and a half short and likely not the culprit.
Here’s a list of Flame regulars with the biggest deficiencies when it comes to goals less expected goals for;
- Farabee – -4.6 (this guy can’t buy a bounce)
- Bean – -3.8
- Hanley – -3.5
- Weegar – -2.9 (some bad hops contributing to a bad start)
- Coronato – – 2.5 (likely to bounce back)
All told there are 11 different players that have at least a goal deficiency vs expected.
On the other side of the ledger are the players that are out performing their expected results; that is goals less expected goals are greater than zero. In this group only four players;
- Bahl – +2.0
- Frost – 1.5
- Gridin – 1.2
- Andersson – 1.0
Are these players lucky? Or are they finishing above their expected level due to contributing above average skill?
Wolf’s Start
Back to the scene of one of his roughest starts in his rookie season, it was interesting to see how Wolf handled the challenge in the media center of the world.
Bad memories erased.
Wolf with less to do in the first period despite the Flames taking three straight penalties in the first frame. But the second period was a different story as the Leafs took over the game and Wolf had to hold the fort giving up two in the middle twenty.
Odds and Sods
The Flames open up the game with the some good jump from the Kadri and Backlund lines. Toronto pushes back but neither team generate that high danger chance in the first few minutes. … The Flames open the scoring when Morgan Frost completes a three way passing play with Kadri and Huberdeau, after Kadri shreds the Leaf’s defense through the neutral zone. … I can appreciate the pickle in which Ryan Huska found himself with the lineup. Sits Coronato for non disciplinary reasons with a suggestion that it will only be for one game, and then has his team beat the Rangers by four goals with the top nine all playing well. Where do you put him? All three lines are playing really well. … Flames keep pushing and draw the game’s first penalty. … I haven’t watched a lot of Leafs games yet this year, but they sure don’t seem as dangerous with Marner in Vegas. One less weapon, much less dominant. … The Flames kill off their first infraction of the evening without a lot of trouble, Zary with the interference call. … Calgary back to the PK soon after with another too many men penalty. This one wasn’t close, way too much space. … They kill that one and then quickly take another one; this time Huberdeau for a slash. Not the recipe to win on the road or anywhere for that matter. … Joel Farabee has either zero finish or zero luck or both, but you can’t question the fabric of the game quality from the player. Great on the PK blocking shots. … The Flames with a solid first period with the exception of discipline; 1-0 Flames after 20. …
Hilarious in the first intermission when Francis said that Morgan Frost’s father, a Toronto media personality, isn’t at the game because the Jays came ahead of his kid. … Good start to the second by the Flames but it’s Toronto that ties it up when Parekh made a bad read at the Leaf’s blueline, pinching in on a 20/80 play, creating a two on one the other way. … Such an odd feeling to be so anti a market for one sport and so pro the same market for a different sport in the same night. I know I’m not alone. … Lots of discussion around Kadri letting Frost take faceoffs on the new first line, but it also looks like he’s letting Frost handle the defensive side of things too. Noticed a few shifts with Frost in the triangle down low and Kadri covering the high point man. … Another chance for Sam Honzek not resulting in a goal. Kid doesn’t look to be getting frustrated. Key for me? He’s 4th on the team in hits per 60, which is a huge departure from the type of player he was when he was drafted. … Calgary pretty much run over in the second period. Too many turnovers and time in their own zone. Some good work in keeping it to the outside, but not a great period five on five. … Calgary gets the go ahead goal however, and wouldn’t you know it; Joel Farabee on the lowest quality chance of the season in a jam play in front of the net. He’ll take it. … Calgary with another late chance with the Toronto boys; Kadri, Parek and Frost combining. Must suck to be the Leafs and have a third of each team’s roster amped to play at home … Toronto ties it late (30 seconds to go) when Nylander eats up a Backlund misqueue and Knies finds the twine. … Expected goals all situations after two period had Toronto with a 2.36 to 1.74 lead, game tied at 2-2. …
Things fall apart quickly for the Flames in the third period. Too much time in their own zone, a Hanley high stick penalty, a Rasmus Andersson turn over, and then a scramble with Wolf out of the net and it’s 3-2 Toronto. … The Flames tie it up again late when Sam Honzek finally lights the lamp and gets that first NHL goal on a terrible turnover by Morgan Reilly. Backlund fetches the puck and feeds him quickly, Honzek doesn’t hesitate and beats Stolarz. … But one good turnover deserves another and we see Mackenzie Weegar turnover with two minutes left in the game resulting in the go ahead and eventual winning goal for the Leafs. Tough way to lose one for the Flames who played pretty well in a tough barn. … Calgary pulls the goalie but never really gets that blue chip chance to tie things up. … 4-3 Toronto final.
Fancy Stats
A somewhat familiar story for the Flames (not the Rangers game) with the Flames playing very well five on five in the hockey game, but taking too many penalties, and giving up the only special teams goal in finding a way to come away with zero points on the night. The Flames, five on five, had 50% (45%/50%/54%) of the shot attempts, 65% of the high danger chances, and 64% of the expected goals. In all situations they had 47% of the shot attempts, 54% of the high danger chances and 47% of the expected goals.
The Flames with 36% on the Moneypuck deserve-to-win-o’meter.
Individually, the Flames were led by Mackenzie Weegar with an xGF% of 84% on the night. He was joined in the 80s by Jake Bean and Joel Hanley. Morgan Frost, Nazem Kadri and Joel Farabee were in the 70s. Only five players were under 50%; Matt Coronato (needs to escape the fourth line), Kevin Bahl, Mikael Backlund, Rasmus Andersson and Blake Coleman.
