Another gutsy effort by the Flames in an entertaining hockey game that featured some solid efforts from some of the Flame’s developing players.
They spot the Blues a 3-0 lead in the first half of the game, score twice late in the second within 25 seconds to make the third period interesting, but come up empty looking for the game tying goal.
At least they snapped their goalless streak at 157 minutes, so there is that.
Calgary drops their third straight game, and both games on the quick two game road trip.
They return to play the Sharks on Thursday night at the Dome.
The Lineup
Up front it’s Morgan Frost between Jonathan Huberdeau and Matt Coronato, Nazim Kadri with Yegor Sharangovich and Joel Farabee, Mikael Backlund with Sam Honzek and Blake Coleman, and a new fourth line of Connor Zary between Ryan Lomberg and Adam Klapka.
On the blueline it’s a continuation of the interesting Yan Kuznetsov story with the youngster sliding into a pairing with Mackenzie Weegar. No change to the other top pairing; Kevin Bahl with Rasmus Andersson and a new third pairing Joel Hanley with Brayden Pachal.
Dustin Wolf back in the nets after sitting out the Devin Cooley start in Minny.
Stats Dive
So what to make of the Yan Kuznetsov stint in the last week to ten days.
Same size is king, there is no way the player is going to keep up his current pace, but his underlying numbers have been off the charts in his early NHL career.
Clearly the Flames, and their more advanced numbers agree as he’s a) staying in the lineup, and b) getting bigger and bigger roles as we move along.
So what are his early numbers?
In 44.5 minutes of five on five hockey the players sits …
1st on the blueline in xGF% with an unGodly percentage of 70.16% (Jake Bean is 2nd and healthy scratched)>
1st on the blueline in xGA60 with a stark 1.21 (next closest is Jake Bean at 1.78)
2nd on the blueline in xGF60 at 2.85 (Bean again in 1st at 2.89)
1st on the blueline in HDCA60 at 1.35 (which is microscopic compared to 2nd place Pachal at 6.55)>
He hasn’t been on the ice for an even strength goal against.
1st on the blueline in actual goals for per 60 at 2.7.
Clearly a heater. Clearly unsustainable. But what a start to the 2nd round picks career.
Is he, like Sam Honzek, here to stay? If so it’s quite the push of youth this year with Gridin’s good start, Parekh getting games, and Honzek and Kuznetsov moving up the depth charts.
Wolf’s Start
Great example of bending but not breaking.
Dustin Wolf gives up three goals in the first half of the game, with one being slightly to the want it back side, but then shuts the door and gives his team a chance to get back in it.
All told the Blues generate 2.74 in all situations expected goals and score three times in the end.
Not a dominant performance, but a steady one in the end.
Flames Goal Scoring Woes
The Farabee chance in the first period is the Flames season in my mind. You can point to luck and bounces, but an elite player probably roofs the puck and doesn’t give Binnington a chance to get his pad on it. The Flames get shots, not enough high danger offerings, and when they do they just don’t have the individual skill to finish at the NHL average rate.
Is it coaching? I think partially for sure, there is no doubt that Huska preaches a defense first system that has a high F3 and with that less penetration.
But is coaching all of it? Looking at the roster night to night I don’t think so.
The NHL is offence on individual skill. Defensive systems are so strong that you have to beat a player individually to setup an odd man chance. The Flames don’t have many of those players. Kadri can do it. Huberdeau. Zary when he finds his game. Frost. But none are elite. None are game breakers.
Odds and Sods
As said above, it’s pretty clear that Ryan Huska is happy with Yan Kutznetsov’s game as he’s had minutes in the top four with Rasmus Andersson and now tonight Mackenzie Weegar. The team is out of it, so it’s experiment time soon, but a good sign for the future of the blueline to have the 2nd rounder carve out a permanent spot. … Spirited start to the game with lots of body contact and some end to end play. The teams zip through the first 10 minutes of the first period with only one whistle. … Flames take a penalty when Honzek trips up a player while being tripped up. The Blues score on the man advantage on a tip play that Wolf didn’t have a chance on. … St. Louis Blues’ fans still hate Nazem Kadri. The guy hurt their goalie in a playoff series so I get it. What I didn’t get was the ugly racial nonsense at the time. … Similar start for the Flames, some pucks to the net but nothing all that dangerous. … Binnington with a scorpion save on Farabee (still an unlucky hockey player). … Blues make it 2-0 with Kessel beating Wolf, one he’d probably like to have back. Appeared that Wolf lost the net. … Blues with a 0.84 to 0.57 edge in expected goals on the strength of a 6-2 margin in high danger chances. …
Calgary goalless streak at 141 minutes after the first period in tonight’s game. … Flames with a solid scoring chance in the first minute of the 2nd, but are denied. Right after Rasmus Andersson take a hooking penalty after a fanned shot. Shorthanded Huberdeau is turned away on a breakaway. Flames kill it off. … Blues make it 3-0 when Wolf stops a breakaway, but has the rebound go through him as he slid away from the net giving the Blues an empty netter. … With the Flames inability to score goals how can the team not feel defeated down three goals with half a game to play? … Matt Coronato is going to break out of this. He’s getting too many shots and too many chances not to find one and then many. The average NHL shooting percentage hovers around 10% in all situations. I think we can all agree that Coronato is an above average NHL shooter. With his six shots in the first half of the game tonight he has 45 on the season and should have 5 goals if he was average and probably 8 given his shot. It will come. … Looked like Calgary was headed to their first powerplay of the night, but Klapka takes a roughing penalty on Tucker and negates it. Don’t mind that though. Big, physical players have to get involved, especially when a teammate is hit from behind. … Hey I was right on Coronato! (wouldn’t take Nostradamus for this one) Shot #4
goes in tonight. Now he’s up to 8%. His shooting percentage against St. Louis is off the charts as he’s now scored three of his four goals this season against the Blues. … Dry spell ends at 157 minutes. … And when one goes more go, as Rasmus Andersson scores less than a minute later to make it 3-2 St. Louis. Crew thought Andersson, but I think I saw a redirection. Could be a Coleman goal. … Flames get a late powerplay but fail to tie the game up. … Tight period with St. Louis having a 1.29 to 1.28 edge in expected goals, all situations.
Flames with an effective trail end of a first period powerplay in the first minute of the third period but they come up empty. .. The Blues score soon after, but it’s waived because Wolf was jammed into the net. … The Flames with all kinds of juice in the third period as they put on pressure in the Blues zone creating a few tense moments in front of Binnington’s paint. … There’s a real calmness to Kuznetsov’s game. He looks like maybe he has a #4 upside and may not be a third pairing guy. … In his early days with the Flames I’m not sure I’d ever see Sam Honzek as a board battle handful, but he’s becoming that as this stretch of straight games continues to evolve. I doubt he’s done filling out yet, and with some coaching he could be a demon. … How does Klapka not tie it up with that empty net with five minutes to play. There’s an example of needing to have some luck too. … Flames pull Wolf with roughly two minutes to go and set up in the Blues zone. Adam Klapka getting extra shifts to provide a net front presence. … Flames put 40 shots on net, but can’t find the tying goal. Blues win 3-2.
Fancy Stats
Tell me if you’ve heard this before; the Flames have a solid edge in zone time and pucks directed towards the net, but don’t generate enough high danger stuff and don’t finish when they do in a losing effort. Next verse … same as the first. The Flames, five on five, had 60% (58%/53%/70%) of the shot attempts, 31% of the high danger chances. In all situations they had 60% of the shot attempts and 33% of the high danger chances.
The Flames with 39% on the Moneypuck deserve-to-win-o’meter.
Individually, the Flames were led by Morgan Front with an xGF% of 70% on the night. His linemates Matt Coronato and Jonathan Huberdeau were both at 66% on the night. The Backlund line struggled with all three members (Backlund, Coleman and Honzek) posting numbers under 30%.
