NHL Draft Success: Weighting the Results

June 23rd, 2015 | Posted in Game Takes | By: D'Arcy McGrath

In part one of our draft success analysis we looked at lost games played over the course of ten years when you compare a player each team drafted to the two players selected right after them.

I called it the “Hossa Rule” as it always frustrated me that Daniel Tkaczuk was compared to Marian Hossa who was taken 7 selections later. Hindsite has to be reeled in when looking at the past or nothing will be learned for drafting going forward.

The concept was games played was an asset, a determination of an asset, and teams with more assets should be more successful. The results suggest I was wrong, and losing the games played battle is insignificant compared to the right games played. Teams at the top of the list in games played success have been doormats for the past half dozen years, the time frame where 2004 drafting and on should have an impact. Meanwhile teams that have been awful in this measurement have gone on to Stanley Cup success, or at least playoff spots and series wins.

Why is this? Bad teams tend to draft higher, and have easier rosters to crack so players rack of games played on weak teams when potentially better players (or at least equal) are left to percolate in the AHL for longer periods of time. The Detroit Red Wings are a classic example of a team that lets their prospects develop before throwing them to the fire, but in doing so they are missing out on 100s of games played over this time frame.

What we established in part one was that in terms of games played quantity trumps draft acumen as every single NHL team has given up games played when two players after their pick are in competition with their pick over ten years and roughly 70 selections each. However, when measured against on ice success perhaps its a lot more complicated than that.
- Full Article –

NHL Draft Success: “The Hossa Rule”

June 22nd, 2015 | Posted in Commentary | By: D'Arcy McGrath

The NHL Entry Draft is one of the most exciting days on the NHL calendar.

Sure no games are played, but future games are envisioned, both in terms of players selected in the 7 rounds and in transactions completed on the draft floor.

Teams are shaped, futures are made more clear (or at least we tell ourselves this), and winners and losers are declared.

For years my rule of thumb in looking back at draft success was the two players selected after each and every Calgary Flames pick. The origin of that saying has something to do with the allowable width of a stick used to hit your wife, so I’ll leave that alone, but the origin of my two pick rule can be traced back to the 1997 draft, and for me will always be known as my “Marian Hossa” rule.
- Full Article –

Game Takes: Ducks 3 Flames 2 (Overtime)

May 10th, 2015 | Posted in Game Takes | By: D'Arcy McGrath

The right team won.

That sucks, and it won’t do much for a hopeful city in Alberta hoping to get their team back on the ice one more time for game six and keep a magical ride going, but its true. The team with nine lives spent their final life tonight in losing a 3-2 overtime game in Anaheim. It was fitting that they gutted a game into overtime, a game that they had no business being in, giving themselves that one shot chance to continue a miracle that has exceeded even the largest optimist’s perception of what a great season could be.

It hurts now, but the long term effects that will come from an unexpected successful season from a team that was supposed to be left for dead and in the battle for McDavid will be far reaching. Riding young players through pressure games and into the post season develops talent. Next season may not have as many bounces, but the organization took a huge step forward this season, and the rewards will come for the next decade.

Give Hartley and co a lot of credit, they brought pride and passion back to the logo, and back to the city.
- Full Article –

Game Takes: Ducks 4 Flames 2

May 8th, 2015 | Posted in Game Takes | By: D'Arcy McGrath

Luck balances out over the course of a season, or so the saying goes.

Rarely however does it even out as quickly as we’ve seen in this series. The Flames had about a half dozen bounces go their way from the last six minutes of the third period to the overtime winner in game three, but tonight saw the scales balance as a giveaway, a goal post and a double minor all conspired to give the Ducks a 4-2 win and a 3-1 lead in the best of seven series.

Flames are down to their final win with this magical season. Do they have another surprise left?
- Full Article –

Game Takes: Flames 4 Ducks 3 (OT)

May 5th, 2015 | Posted in Game Takes | By: D'Arcy McGrath

The Canucks series felt like overtime, it never happened but if felt like overtime. Calgary won three games on home ice, all by extended scores and overtime was never needed.

Tonight as a Calgarian you prayed for overtime. The team trailing 3-2 heading into the third period saw the clock ticking down on their season. Ten minutes to go, eight, then six and a disallowed goal that will be talked about for a long time. Five, four, three, two and one.

Calgary on a powerplay late with the goalie pulled and time ticking down further, Gaudreau with less than 25 seconds to go takes the puck off the half wall waits out the pass baiting and roofs it to send it into overtime, setting up a come from behind 4-3 overtime win, making the series 2-1 Anaheim and a big game four on Friday night.

Love it.
- Full Article –

All content is property of Calgarypuck.com and cannot be used without expressed, written consent from this site.