Interesting game in Chicago.
Lots of hits. Some bad blood. And a flurry of goals in the third period after almost zero offence through the first 30 minutes of the game in a 5-2 Chicago win that featured a Connor Bedard hat trick.
The Flames got goals from Matt Coronato and Rasmus Andersson and had the game tied at 2-2 in the third before the Hawks scored three unanswered goals to wrap the night up.
Next up a game in Buffalo tomorrow night.
The Lineup
Lots of change after the Winnipeg game.
Rory Kerins gets sent down, Sam Honzek goes on the IR from friendly fire, and the Flames recall both Dryden Hunt and Sam Morton from the farm. Hunt takes Yegor Sharangovich’s place eating popcorn.
Up front it’s Morgan Frost with Jonathan Huberdeau and Matt Coronato, Nazem Kadri with Yegor Sharangoivch and Joel Farabee, Mikael Backlund with Connor Zary and Blake Coleman, and a fourth line of Sam Morton between Ryan Lomberg and Adam Klapka.
On the blueline it’s status quo; Kevin Bahl with Rasmus Andersson, Yan Kuztensov with Mackenzie Weegar and Jake Bean with Brayden Pachal.
Dustin Wolf in net for the Flames.
Stats Dive
Goals don’t come easy for the Calgary Flames.
Their powerplay is dead last and they are 29th in five on five goal scoring with 19th ranked xGF expectation. The gap; goals for less expected goals for, is generally to the negative with teams that lack talent and positive for teams that can score more goals than they generate.
This year in the NHL the Flames are 28th in the differential at -0.52 per 60 minutes of five on five hockey (roughly 1.25 games played. They are joined in purgatory by the Wild, Predators, Wings and Capitals. At the top of the differential standings are the Leafs, Avalanche, Senators, Hawks and Sharks.
Sometimes that’s bad luck, and it certainly can be at the 20 game mark, but on the season it’s usually pretty decent talent meter.
But how do the quarter pole 25/26 Flames compare to the previous 4 seasons?
Calgary’s 2.50 expected goals per 60 is up from last year’s (2024-25) 2.43 and down from the previous year (2023-24) 2.60. In those two years the flames were negative on the conversion rate as well with -0.33 / 60 last year and -0.06 /60 in the previous season. In 21/22 with a solid top line they were +0.17.
Where does this go when they start moving some veteran talent? I’ll give you one guess.
Wolf’s Start
Didn’t have a whole lot of luck tonight.
It was a low event hockey game and the Hawks get a first period goal on a puck that hit Jake Bean twice with the rebound going straight to a Hawk. No chance for wolf.
In the second a lucky Bedard one hander through Wolf’s pads, with Wolf trying to come out and play it. Sort of Wolf’s fault, but also a fluke goal.
Wolf is finally beaten cleanly with Bedard’s second goal of the game, a snipe that went over Wolf’s blocker. But the second third period goal was another fluke off of Bahl’s skate.
Very unlucky night for Wolf.
The Hawks generate 1.85 in all situations expected goals and score four times.
Odds and Sods
Workmanlike start for the Flames on the road. Not a lot going on in either direction in the first five minutes. … Sam Morton with a rebound chance on his first shift, and then a point blank chance on his second. Good start! … The Hawks sort of the took over the next five minutes, attacking on the rush and pinning the Flames in their own zone. … First penalty to Bedard of the Hawks, but nothing on the powerplay by the Flames. .. Soon after Sharangovich takes an interference call sending the Hawks to the powerplay. … Hawks come up empty as well… Chicago opens the scoring on the next shift after the kill with Donato getting a wide open rebound and beating Wolf. Flames challenge but are denied and end up short again. I personally didn’t think there was enough there for an overturned goal, especially this year where they lean into keeping the goals on the board. … Calgary down 1-0 kill off the second minor. … Chicago with a slide edge in all situations with a 0.75-0.72 margin in expected goals. … Good news; only 5 Chicago first period shots. Bad news; only 4 from the Flames.
Blackhawks with a dangerous chance to start the second, Burkowsky with the puck off of Wolf’s mask, sending the goaltender to his back up lid. … Zary and a Hawk collide, which creates a yard sale that takes down Bah. Zary the more shaken up player, but seemed to be ok. … Solid graphic in the second showing the Weegar/Kuznetsov pairing at 59% in expected through 6 games together. They added that Weegar has said “Kuznetsov has been great for me”. No better feedback then a veteran getting a boost from a call up. Is the kid here to stay? … Sharangovich with a solid second period shift. Great pass to Andersson. Great rebound chance himself. … Flames get into some penalty trouble with back to back penalties by Bean and Bahl, overlapping by 24 seconds. They kill off both and the game stays 1-0. … Chicago makes it 2-0 on a fluke play. A dumped out puck bouncing into the Calgary zone with Bedard and Kuznetsov in hot pursuit. Kuznetsov takes Bedard out of the play, but Wolf comes out and misses the puck with a Bedard touch going through his pads. … The Flames get a late powerplay on a Connor Murphy cross check on Connor Zary, leading to a Matt Coronato crease banger to make it 2-1 Chicago after 40. … 1.26 to 1.10 Chicago in all situations expected goals.
Flames with a good start to the third period. Nazem Kadri with a good chance in front on a rebound that goes wide. … Calgary ties it up when Rasmus Andersson guys high blocker on a setup from Mikael Backlund. … Andersson with a beast mode hockey game. Hope there were some scouts in the rink to see this one. He’s been really good all year actually. Bounceback from his fugly +/- from last year on a broken leg. … Huska changed up the top two lines in the second, putting Kadri with Coronato and Huberdeau, and Farabee with Frost and Sharangovich. … Bedard puts the Hawks up again with his 12th of the season on a much less flukey goal, the youngster just beats Wolf clean with a snipe. 3-2 Chicago. … Not sure I’ve ever seen a Chicago/Buffalo back to back. It’s usually Chicago with Minnesota, Nashville or St. Louis. … The Klapka on Murphy hit was a thing. Not sure why Murphy went down on one knee. He doesn’t and it’s nothing burger. … Chicago with their third fortunate goal of the night with a Kevin Bahl blocked shot ending in a break that goes into the cage off of Bahl’s skate. … Bedard hat trick into the empty net.
Fancy Stats
Another one of those tough ones to figure when you dig into the underlying stats. The Flames with a slight edge in shot attempts, but trail in high danger and scoring chances but still edge the Hawks in expected five on five goals. Not sure about that one. I mean the game was close, and that shows, but the final tally is a bit odd to me. The Flames, five on five, had 51% (37/50%/71%) of the shot attempts, 36% of the high danger chances and 51% of the expected goal split. In all situations they had 50% of the shot attempts, 43% of the high danger chances, and 52% of the goal split.
The Flames with 51% on the Moneypuck deserve-to-win-o’meter.
Individually, the Flames were led by Sam Morton with an xGF% of 95% on the night. Adam Klapka, Connor Zary and Ryan Lomberg had solid nights as well. Only six players under water; Joel Farabee, Yegor Sharangovich, Brayden Pachal, Jake Bean, Morgan Frost and Nazem Kadri.
