Score effects is a thing, you can see it in almost any hockey game.
The team that is down will force the play, and the team that is up has to weather the storm. As hockey fans we all assume the club we cheer for is in complete control, but nothing could be further from the truth. Hockey is a seesaw battle of wits where the ability to cash in when driving and manage when getting run over is the difference between winning and losing.
For two straight games the Flames walked a David Rittich 1-0 shut out lead into a third period. And for two straight games they let him down big time by sitting on the lead, and literally creating nothing by way of zone pressure or a push back.
The Cane’s picked up two third period goals from Andrei Svechnikov, one on a classic example of the lacrosse goal in turning a 1-0 Calgary lead into a 2-1 victory for the home side.
The loss moves the Flames back to .500 on the season as they continue to try and sort out their missing offence.
Line Up Changes
Like the outdoor game the Flames continue with their altered lines, keeping the four year long association of Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau on the sidebar.
So once again it’s Elias Lindholm up the middle between Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk, the shut down line intact with Mikael Backlund between Milan Lucic and Michael Frolik, but some changes to the second and fourth line. In order to get some chemistry going on the fourth line Peters moved Andrew Mangiapane down to play with his buddy Derek Ryan as well as Tobias Rieder. That leaves the odd line of the night, Sean Monahan between Sam Bennett (sure) and Alan Quine (huh?)
No changes to the defense pairings and David Rittich gets the start again for Calgary.
Monahan Play
Peter Loubardias figures Monahan has his own line now because he’s improved his play away from the puck and is more physically imposing on the ice.
Others feel Monahan is off the top line because he isn’t playing well; a punishment if you will.
Still another camp feels Johnny Gaudreau’s sudden lack of hands has created the need to shake things up and try something new, with Monahan the principal victim in a team that is clearly shorty a top six player to make two lines go; especially if you park three of the five guys they do have on one line, and another on a third line.
So what do the numbers say?
There is some support for the “Monahan is a better defensive player” argument as the player’s expected goals against per 60 minutes is down 2.22/60 this season, compared to his average in the last four seasons of about 2.40/60.
The issue is the offence. His shots/60 is up, so individually he’s getting it done, but the lag of the top line can be seen in his other on ice metrics as he’s just not part of generating much overall on the season. It doesn’t help that his shooting percentage has cratered.
Peters may need to find some pairs and not a whole line soon, as the team is withering offensively.
Noah Hanifin Scare
Didn’t like the fact that Noah Hanifin left the ice in the third period and I honestly couldn’t remember the next player up on the left side in the organization.
Yikes!
Luckily the blueliner came back so the disaster is averted, but just when you thought you had depth you see an Oscar Fantenberg exit and a Juuso Valimaki injury and just like that you’re talking Yelesin as a guy playing every day.
Which leads me to …
NHL Depth
Really interesting to see the market by market narrative around depth these days in the salary cap world with exploding RFA contracts.
Pretty much every team is thin. Teams that had riches in depth had to move them for cap constraint reasons leaving almost every team we’ve seen vulnerable to injury.
Calgary seems to have two decent goaltenders. They have a top six on the blueline that I like, but then it gets iffy. Up front they have five top six forwards, roughly four middle six guys and some depth, but they have holes.
Tampa is still a pretty deep team, but even they’ve had to shed salary and move players to stay compliant.
Drafting is about to become an even bigger variable in this next decade.
Teams need entry level players at all positions in the wings to keep the assembly line running.
The Stripes
Those that read these things on a game by game basis will be able to confirm that I rarely complain about officials. I think most fan bases think they are hard done by, so I generally don’t bite on the “poor us” bait and join the fray.
Having said that I just don’t get why Matthew Tkachuk gets the only penalty in a fracas that started with the Carolina player having a partial head lock on the Calgary player. One issue leads to the other, and retaliation is always called, I get that. But is it necessary to pick just one out in a tie game late in the third period? Certainly had an impact on the game, which was a shame.
Counting Stats
Team Stats:
Shots – Flames 29 Canes 28
Face Offs – Flames 47%
Special Teams – Flames 0/3 Canes 1/3
Player Stats:
Points – Elias Lindholm, Johnny Gaudreau and Travis Hamonic all picked up a point on Calgary’s only goal, that marker from Lindholm.
Plus/Minus – The two traded for Canes and Travis Hamonic were the only +1 players on the night.
Shots – Matthew Tkachuk led the way with eight (8!) shots on the night.
Fancy Stats
The Flames mailed in a third period and paid for it in a game where they turned a 1-0 lead into a 2-1 loss. In terms of five on five shot attempts the final tally had Calgary with 40% on period splits of 50%/46% and a ghastly 24%. High danger chances were kept to a reasonable level with Carolina having a five on five edge of 9-6, with a 4-0 bulge in the third.
In all situations the Flames had 43% of the shot attempts and 52% of the high danger chances as Mrazik played very well.
Individually, only one player finished the night on the positive side of the basic shot metric as Oliver Kylington had a 54% mark for his efforts. Three other players; Elias Lindholm, Matthew Tkachuk and Andrew Mangiapane finished even. Sam Bennett and Alan Quine finished under 30% as the new second line experiment clearly failed.
