Game Takes: Flames 4 Jackets 3 (OT)

January 23rd, 2023 | Posted in Game Takes | By: D'Arcy McGrath

The Flames won. That’s the bottom line. They dominated the game pretty much whistle to whistle but fell into that same trap that has hurt them a few times this season.

When they are dominating an opponent they starting cheating offensively in what looks like a push to get things done.

They have to let the game come to them when they’re out classing the opponent and stop forcing the issue and with it mistakes and break downs.

But for tonight all ends well with a Dillon Dube overtime goal to give the Flames a 4-3 win over the Johnny Gaudreau led Columbus Blue Jackets.

Given their success in overtime and the shoot out this year … you take it.

The Lineup

No expected changes from the Flames tonight, so you wonder if Jakob Pelletier’s family stayed in town for the rest of the weekend.

Up front it’s Elias Lindholm with Dillon Dube and Tyler Toffoli, Nazem Kadri with Milan Lucic and Jonathan Huberdeau, Mikael Backlund with Andrew Mangiapane and Blake Coleman, and Trevor Lewis with Jakob Pelletier and Walker Duehr.

On the blueline no change as well; Noah Hanifin with Rasmus Andersson, Mackenzie Weegar with Chris Tanev, and Nikita Zadorov with Michael Stone.

Dan Vladar gets the start again after defeating the Tampa Bay Lightning on Saturday.

Line Metrics 

Dube – Lindholm – Toffoli 50.3%
Huberdeau – Kadri – Lucic 50.7%
Mangiapane – Backlund – Coleman 68.3%
Pelletier – Lewis – Duehr 100.0%

Hanifin – Andersson 53.7%
Weegar – Tanev 56.4%
Zadorov – Stone 50.8%

Goals Saved + Avg
Markstrom +2.0
Vladar -3.1

Trend Tracker:

We’ve discussed the differences between sites when it comes to goaltending stats this year, and how differently Moneypuck sees Jacob Markstrom compared to NaturalStatTrick. Bit of a difference in Dan Vladar’s last game as well between the two sites. Moneypuck had him losing 0.3 against his goals saved above average stat, NaturalStatTrick had him gaining 0.1. Not a huge change, but once again … points to two different models. … Good to see the top line bounce back against Tampa with Dillon Dube scoring twice, and Tyler Toffoli adding another. They also pushed their expected goal metric back above break even. … Jacob Pelletier’s first game on a line with Trevor Lewis and Walker Duehr posted a perfect 100%. Hard to argue with that!

Ice Time Distribution

Thought it was interesting in the presser today with Darryl Sutter talking about ice time distribution.

He said he’d like to see all the lines in the teens if possible, but you have to keep the penalties down.

Made me wonder about averages again and if that’s possible.

The average first line player gets 13 and change of five on five ice time (top 96 point producers / 32 teams). Flames? Pretty much the same with Kadri just above that average, and Coleman right at it. Backlund, Huberdeau and Mangiapane are all above the average 2nd line player in ice time, so he’s pretty much on average.

That leaves the third line at 11.5 minutes of five on five and the fourth line just under 10. In Calgary pretty much the same.

Earlier I looked it up by top end players and Calgary was behind, but when you look at averages it seems to work; 13 + 12.5 + 11.5 + 10 adds up to 47, exactly the Flames five on five minute average.

So all lines in the teens? Not likely, but all lines in double digits is doable …. but tight.

Gaudreau Reaction

Same night as Tkachuk’s … sort of.

Big standing ovation for the tribute during the tv time out, but merciful booing before and after.

Think I heard a mocking “Jonnnnnny” chant as well.

Now the differences … Way more energy into the boing of Gaudreau than Tkachuk in my mind, and it wasn’t even close.

Gaudreau’s Game

Much for effective than Matthew Tkachuk was in his first game back.

Two elite second period powerplay assists, a missed break away, a missed penalty shot, and a third period deflection off the post that could have been the game winner.

Little bastard has some talent!

Duehr Goal Song

How great is it to hear the Kentucky Head Hunters Dumas Walker for Walker Duehr’s goal song.

And what a shot!

Takes a pass from Mackenzie Weegar in the slot and buries a one timer for the Flames 1-0 lead.

Great start again to the new fourth line.

Dominant First

Quite the period for the Flames.

They had 74% of the shot attempts, a 17-6 edge in shots, and 17-7 edge in scoring chances despite the Jackets having the only powerplay and a penalty shot.

They were all over the Jackets and forcing turnovers on the forecheck.

But …

When they broke down … they broke down.

An inexplicable turnover by Mackenzie Weegar sends Johnny Gaudreau in alone. He gets hooked by Chris Tanev and is rewarded a penalty shot. On the shot he missed the net to a huge roar from the Saddledome crowd.

Later Jonathan Huberdeau turns it over to Gaudreau on a partial break but Vladar gets a piece of it with his shoulder.

Dominant territorially, but huge ten bell chances against on a few players where the Flames were forcing it offensively trying to keep the dominant play rolling.

Speaking of Tanev

Tanev left the ice 2/3 of the way through the first period on what looked like a pretty innocent collision.

Hard not to think of the procedures to his neck and collarbone in the off season, and the potential for something jarring loose.

He didn’t come back for the rest of the first.

Then he didn’t come back for the rest of the night.

Not good.

Pelletier Close Again

Lots of poise with the puck in game number two in his career.

Two great first period passes off offensive zone face offs creating chances.

In the second he got out on a powerplay and was good dishing the puck and should have scored when he recovered a Mikael Backlund rebound but failed to get the puck over the scorpion from Korpisalo.

Still not a whole lot of ice time with another penalty filled game, but a noticeable presence in the bottom six with his hands and hockey IQ.

Lucic Scraps Again

Back to back games with a scrap from Milan Lucic after nothing since last April.

Wonder where this is coming from?

Either way it’s his elite skill as he loses foot speed and can no longer produce at a top six level.

Tonight he bludgeons Mathieu Olivier with several rights to the face bloodying his nose and cutting him on the bridge of the beak.

Guy still has it with the meat weapons.

Crazy Overtime

Interesting to see Sutter building the Tre Kronor 3 on 3 line for overtime with Elias Lindholm, Mikael Backlund and Rasmus Andersson. They started the overtime and dominated the first minute setting the tone.

The game winner came when Noah Hanifin stripped Johnny Gaudreau sending Andrew Mangiapane and Dillon Dube away on a two on one. Mangiapane feeds Dube who looks to have fanned somewhat but skips it past Korpisalo for the winner.

Was wondering if Noah Hanifin was going to get tagged for a hooking call on the winner, but on the replay you could see him strip Gaudreau and then Gaudreau doing the armpit squeeze on his stick.

Either way, nice to see the Flames score a post 60 goal for once!


Three point night for Andrew Mangiapane!

He’s been playing well for some time, but lately the pucks are starting to go for the hard working winger.

This line is dominant pretty much every night, and tonight he’s rewarded with a second period goal and assist, and an overtime assist to put up his three point night.

Special Teams

Easy win for the Jackets.

They score two second period powerplay goals on four opportunities while coming up empty on a penalty shot. The Flames come up empty on their only two chances.

Technically the Flames had four high danger chances on their two powerplays while the Jackets came up with zero on their four chances.

Standings and Record

The win moves the Flames to 23-16-9 on the season for 55 points in 48 games for a .573 points percentage.

They sit two points back of the Oilers with even games played.

The Avalanche trail the Flames by two points but have three games in hand and have a higher points percentage so the Flames are still out looking to get in before the all star break.

Building a bit of a gap on Nashville and St. Louis however.

Who misses?

Counting Stats

Shots: Flames 49 Jackets 25
Face Offs: Flames 58% / Jackets 42%
Powerplay: Flames 0-2 / Jackets 2-4

Fancy Stats

Pretty dominant game overall for the Flames, with all kinds of territorial advantage and puck time, but too many turnovers leading to high danger chances against keeping the game interesting. Five on five the Flames had 67% of the shot attempts with period splits of 79%/58% and 62% respectively. In terms of five on five expected goals, the Flames had 67%, and for high danger scoring chances the Flames had 61%, with a  11-7 split.

In all situations the Flames had 67% of the shot attempts, 67% of the expected goals, and 64% of the high danger splits. The all situations expected goal totals came out at 4.55 to 2.24.

Individually the Flames were led by Nazem Kadri posting an xGF% of 91% on the night five on five. Blake Coleman, Jonathan Huberdeau, Nikita Zadorov, Milan Lucic and Andrew Mangiapane were all in the 80s. Michael Stone, Jakob Pelletier and Chris Tanev were in the 70s. Six players were under water; Dillon Dube, Walker Duehr, Tyler Toffoli, Mackenzie Weegar, Trevor Lewis and Elias Lindholm.

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